【冠通期货研究报告】塑料日报：高开后震荡运行-20260210

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to break the involution. With low upstream petrochemical inventory and the current basis being repaired, plastics are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to new plastic production capacity coming on - stream recently, a higher operating rate than PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch film not yet starting, the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 10, the restart of maintenance devices such as Guangdong Petrochemical's full - density line 1 led to the plastic operating rate rising to around 91%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% on a week - on - week basis, showing a seasonal decline. Petrochemical inventory reduction in February was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years. The cost side saw an increase in crude oil prices due to market concerns about a potential military conflict between the US and Iran. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6723 yuan/ton, the highest was 6779 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6775 yuan/ton, up 0.24% above the 60 - day moving average. The position volume decreased by 5995 lots to 512614 lots [2]. - Spot: Part of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to +0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6600 - 7020 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8280 - 8960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 10, the restart of maintenance devices such as Guangdong Petrochemical's full - density line 1 led to the plastic operating rate rising to around 91%, which is at a moderately high level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% on a week - on - week basis. With the approaching Spring Festival, orders and raw material inventories for agricultural films continued to decrease, and orders for packaging films also decreased, showing a seasonal decline in the overall downstream operating rate of PE [1][4]. - Inventory: On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 40,000 tons to 460,000 tons on a day - on - day basis, 35,000 tons lower than the same period in the lunar calendar last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose to $69/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $695/ton on a week - on - week basis, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $675/ton on a week - on - week basis [4].