沥青日报：震荡运行-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand. It is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In February 2026, domestic asphalt is expected to have a production of 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year. Some refineries postponed resuming production, and this week some refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Lanqiao Petrochemical resumed asphalt production, with the operating rate increasing slightly from a low level [1][4]. - Demand side: Last week, approaching the Spring Festival, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The operating rate of road asphalt dropped 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week. In Shandong, after the price increase, the terminal demand was weak, and the national shipment volume decreased 1.33% to 211,600 tons week - on - week, at a moderately low level. Logistics gradually stopped approaching the Spring Festival, and spot trading became light [1]. - Inventory: As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% week - on - week compared with the week of January 30, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and cost. The discount of Venezuelan crude oil offered by Vitol China has shrunk significantly. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be much lower than before the US intervention. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventory available before March [1]. - Crude oil: The US and Iran will hold a new round of negotiations, but the US has warned ships flying the US flag to stay away from Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz. The market is worried about a military conflict between the two sides, and crude oil prices have rebounded [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2604 contract fell 0.21% to 3,350 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,340 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,379 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 2,502 to 156,425 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to - 140 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Investment data: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage point compared with January - October 2025 but was still negative. From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. From January to December 2025, the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4]. - Social financing: From January to December 2025, the social financing stock increased 8.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased 0.2 percentage point compared with January - November. The recovery of enterprises' medium - and long - term financing demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4].