山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term safe - haven risk has increased due to geopolitical events such as the situation between the US and Iran. The new Fed chairman is expected to be hawkish, the US employment is weak, inflation pressure still exists, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is coming to an end [1]. - The conflict between the US and Iran has escalated, leading to an increase in regional tension, which enhances the safe - haven attribute of precious metals [1]. - The Fed's Daly pointed out the vulnerability of the labor market, indicating there is still room for interest rate cuts. The new Fed nominee has triggered hawkish expectations, but his appointment is still uncertain. The market expects the Fed to complete interest rate cuts this year, with the next cut possibly in June [1]. - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months. Attention should be paid to the risk of demand falsification for silver, platinum, and palladium. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen energy industry, and palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market [1]. - Precious metals are expected to be in a wide - range and weak oscillation in the short term, build a bottom in the medium term, and maintain a long - term bullish trend [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management should be done well, and stop - loss and take - profit should be strictly set [2]. - Price Data: International prices of Comex gold and London gold have increased. Domestic prices of Shanghai gold futures and gold T + D have different trends. The basis and price ratios also show various changes. For example, the Comex gold active contract closed at $5084.20 per ounce, up 1.92% from the previous day and 8.62% from the previous week [2]. - Position and Inventory Data: The positions of Comex gold, Shanghai gold futures, and gold T + D have decreased to varying degrees. The inventories of LBMA, Comex gold, and Shanghai gold futures have different changes. For instance, the position of Comex gold decreased by 22.41% compared to the previous week [2]. - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of futures companies in Shanghai gold futures are listed, showing the changes in their positions [3]. 2. Silver - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit [4]. - Price Data: International prices of Comex silver and London silver have increased, while domestic prices of Shanghai silver futures and silver T + D have decreased. The basis and price differences also show significant changes. For example, the Comex silver active contract closed at $83.05 per ounce, up 7.13% from the previous day and 4.78% from the previous week [4]. - Position and Inventory Data: The positions of Comex silver, Shanghai silver futures, and silver T + D have changed. The inventories of LBMA, Comex silver, Shanghai silver futures, and silver on the Shanghai Gold Exchange have also changed. The total visible inventory decreased by 1.51% compared to the previous week [4]. - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of futures companies in Shanghai silver futures are presented, along with the changes in their positions [5]. 3. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit [6]. - Price Data: International prices of NYMEX platinum and London platinum have different trends. Domestic prices of platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange have increased. The basis and price differences have also changed significantly. For example, the NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2097.40 per ounce, up 6.41% from the previous day but down 3.71% from the previous week [7]. - Position and Inventory Data: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract has decreased, and the inventory of NYMEX platinum has also decreased. The net position of asset management institutions has decreased [7]. - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of futures companies in platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are listed, showing the changes in their positions [8]. 4. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit [9]. - Price Data: The international price of the NYMEX palladium active contract has increased, while the London palladium price has decreased. The domestic price of palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has increased. The basis has changed significantly. For example, the NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1712.00 per ounce, up 4.33% from the previous day and 0.65% from the previous week [9]. - Position and Inventory Data: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract has decreased, and the inventory of NYMEX palladium has also decreased. The net position of asset management institutions is negative [9]. 5. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Fed - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets have increased slightly [10]. - US Economic Data: Data on inflation, economic growth, the labor market, the real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys are provided, showing the current economic situation in the United States [10][12]. - Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves: The gold reserves of China, the United States, and the world are presented, as well as the proportion of different currencies in the IMF's foreign exchange reserves and the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves in different countries [12]. - Risk - related Indexes: The geopolitical risk index has decreased, the VIX index has increased slightly, the CRB commodity index has increased slightly, and the offshore RMB exchange rate has changed slightly [12]. 6. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate levels at different meetings from March 2026 to December 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions [14].