Changjiang Securities·2026-02-10 11:26Investment Rating - The investment rating for the semiconductor and semiconductor production equipment industry is "Positive" and maintained [14]. Core Insights - The silicon carbide (SiC) industry is undergoing a dual transition of new and old driving forces, along with a reshaping of the supply landscape. Demand is shifting from traditional applications like electric vehicles and photovoltaics to AI chip cooling, driven by a surge in computing power needs. This new demand is expected to grow at a higher rate and with long-term certainty, creating a dual driving force alongside a stable fundamental base. On the supply side, domestic companies are leading breakthroughs in 12-inch substrate R&D and pilot production, while overseas leader Wolfspeed is entering bankruptcy restructuring due to ongoing massive losses, accelerating the global supply chain's shift towards China. Domestic substrate companies are poised to capture the dual dividends of "computing power β + domestic α," propelling SiC from a material supplier to a core enabler of computing infrastructure, initiating a new growth cycle characterized by simultaneous increases in volume and price [5][13]. Summary by Sections AI Demand and Constraints - The explosive growth in computing power is facing three rigid constraints: economic, technical, and performance-related. The rising costs associated with process upgrades and design investments are deteriorating the input-output ratio. Technically, transistor miniaturization is approaching atomic scales, leading to quantum tunneling and leakage effects, which slow down single-thread performance growth. Performance-wise, while multi-core stacking increases total computing power, it results in GPU power consumption exceeding 400W, with future overall power consumption potentially surpassing 1kW, creating a "power wall" that restricts frequency enhancement and long-term stability [11][26]. Silicon Carbide as a Cooling Material - Silicon carbide has been validated in high-reliability scenarios such as electric vehicles and photovoltaic inverters over the past decade. Its material properties enable efficient cooling for computing power: a thermal conductivity of 4.9 W/cm·K (about three times that of silicon), low thermal expansion coefficient, and high Young's modulus. Laser-assisted through-silicon vias can precisely construct high aspect ratio 3D thermal channels, significantly optimizing heat flow paths. Stress tests confirm its superiority over silicon-based solutions in controlling radial stress and axial strain [12][13]. Market Growth and Supply Restructuring - The SiC industry is at a historic turning point with "demand expansion + supply restructuring." The demand side sees AI chip cooling creating a new market, with TSMC's CoWoS capacity expected to reach 1 million pieces per month by 2026, potentially generating over $1 billion if 30% adopts SiC solutions. Coupled with steady growth in the renewable energy sector, the industry is entering a high-growth phase driven by dual forces. On the supply side, leading domestic companies are accelerating the realization of their capacity plans, while Wolfspeed's bankruptcy is shifting global supply chain dominance towards China. In this context, leading companies with technological barriers and deep customer ties are set to fully capture the dual dividends of "computing power β + domestic α," elevating SiC from a material supplier to a core enabler of computing infrastructure [13][14].