流动性系列之二：高息存款到期高点或已过

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The report discusses the reality and narrative surrounding deposit maturity, highlighting that a significant amount of high-interest deposits will mature in early 2026, which may lead to a migration of funds to capital markets due to lower new deposit rates [7][10][57] - It emphasizes that while there is a narrative around the migration of deposits to capital markets, this may not have a positive long-term impact on market health, as it could lead to increased volatility and wealth redistribution [11][60] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction: Reality and Narrative of Deposit Maturity - The report introduces a framework for measuring deposit maturity based on listed bank reports, aiming to clarify the reality versus the narrative surrounding deposit migration to capital markets [8][14] 2. Reality One: Significant Deposits Held by Residents and Enterprises - As of December 2025, total deposits in China amount to 286 trillion yuan, with 166 trillion yuan in household deposits and 120 trillion yuan in enterprise deposits. The growth rates of household deposits have significantly outpaced those of enterprise deposits [15] 3. Reality Two: Annual Maturity of Large Amounts of Time Deposits - In 2025, approximately 105 trillion yuan of time deposits are expected to mature, an increase of 14 trillion yuan year-on-year. The report notes that the first quarter typically sees the highest volume of maturing deposits [23][24] 4. Reality Three: Low Rates on Newly Issued Time Deposits - The report highlights that the interest rates on newly issued time deposits have been significantly reduced, creating a gap between maturing high-interest deposits and current rates, which may drive depositors to seek alternative financial products [34] 5. Reality Four: First Quarter of 2026 as the Peak for Deposit Maturity - The estimated maturity of high-interest deposits in 2026 is around 32 trillion yuan, with the first quarter expected to see the highest pressure from maturing deposits [39][40] 6. High-Interest Deposit Maturity Peak May Have Passed - The report concludes that the peak for high-interest deposit maturity occurred in the first quarter of 2026, with expectations that the narrative around deposit migration may begin to fade as market conditions change [57] 7. Thoughts on Deposit Migration and Bull Market Narratives - The report argues that while deposit migration narratives may be prevalent during bullish market conditions, they may not contribute positively to the long-term health of capital markets, suggesting a need for a focus on corporate performance and valuation instead [11][60]