沪铜日报：情绪回暖，年前企稳-20260210

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the copper market has warmed up, and prices are expected to stabilize before the Spring Festival. Domestic copper purchase and storage expectations boost future confidence, but the current high inventory during the traditional consumption off - season suppresses prices. With the approaching Spring Festival, market liquidity is decreasing, and cautious operations are recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong intraday oscillation. In January, the copper production was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. In February, the expected output of electrolytic copper in China will decrease by 35,800 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.04%, and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. The apparent copper consumption as of December 2025 was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. After the pre - holiday copper price correction, the downstream industry chain replenished raw materials. As the price warms up and the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream has mostly entered the holiday mode, and procurement and purchases have decreased marginally [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong intraday oscillation. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 10 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 115 yuan/ton. On February 9, 2026, the LME official price was 13,043 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 63 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of February 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 51.23 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.21 US cents/pound [9] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 165,900 tons, an increase of 8,811 tons from the previous period. As of February 9, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area is 91,100 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 184,300 tons, an increase of 1,025 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 590,200 short tons, an increase of 1,130 short tons from the previous period [13]