原油日报：原油震荡上行-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Although it is the off-season for crude oil demand, due to the impact of the winter storm, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, and refined oil inventories have also decreased more than expected, with overall oil product inventories continuing to decline. However, global floating crude oil storage remains high, and the crude oil market remains in a state of supply surplus. The latest EIA January report has raised the expected supply surplus for 2026. Saudi Aramco has announced a 30 - cent per barrel price cut for Arabian Light crude oil to be shipped to Asia in March 2025. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, which currently has little impact on global crude oil supply and demand. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations in Muscat, Oman, have “temporarily” ended. The geopolitical risk in Iran remains highly uncertain. Iran has a large crude oil production capacity, and attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiations. Trump has announced that the so - called “reciprocal tariffs” imposed by the US on Indian goods will be reduced from 25% to 18% immediately. Modi has agreed that India will stop buying Russian oil and purchase more oil from the US, and may also buy oil from Venezuela. Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The new round of talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US ended in the UAE on the 5th. Although a new round of prisoner exchanges was completed, no substantial progress was made on core issues such as territory and ceasefire. The geopolitical situation in Iran has repeatedly caused sharp fluctuations in oil prices. With the current cold wave weakening, attention should be paid to the impact of the next cold wave. The production at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field has recovered to 60% of its peak, and full production is expected to resume on February 23. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will suspend the increase in oil production in March. The winter storm has led to a larger - than - expected reduction in US crude oil and refined oil inventories, but the global floating crude oil storage is high, and the supply surplus situation persists. Saudi Aramco has cut the price of Arabian Light crude oil to Asia. Chevron is increasing Venezuelan oil transportation. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations have “temporarily” ended, and the geopolitical risk in Iran is uncertain. Trump has reduced tariffs on Indian goods, and India may adjust its oil - purchasing sources. The Russia - Ukraine - US talks have not made substantial progress on core issues. The geopolitical situation in Iran causes oil price fluctuations. The cold wave is weakening, and attention should be paid to the next one. The Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is expected to fully resume production on February 23, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2604 rose 2.17% to 476.1 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 465.2 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 477.9 yuan/ton, and an increase in open interest of 1256 to 44,264 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report has raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79 per barrel to $52.21 per barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA has raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. On the evening of February 4, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending January 30 decreased by 3.455 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 489,000 barrels, and were 1.25% higher than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels, compared with an expected increase of 1.389 million barrels. Refined oil inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 2.255 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 743,000 barrels [3]. Supply - Side Situation - The latest OPEC monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.564 million barrels per day. Due to the impact of the winter storm, US crude oil production for the week ending January 30 decreased by 484,000 barrels per day to 13.215 million barrels per day, the largest decline since January 19, 2024. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products has increased to 20.802 million barrels per day, a 2.54% increase compared with the same period last year, changing from being lower than the same period last year to being higher. Among them, the weekly gasoline production decreased by 6.90% to 8.153 million barrels per day, the four - week average production was 8.262 million barrels per day, a 0.44% decrease compared with the same period last year. The weekly diesel production increased by 5.92% to 4.31 million barrels per day, the four - week average production was 4 million barrels per day, a 2.35% increase compared with the same period last year. The rebound in diesel and other oil products has driven a 3.28% month - on - month increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4].