南华浩淞天然橡胶期货气象分析报告：国内产区或迎大范围气象干旱，警惕后续厄尔尼诺叠加影响

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current weak La Nina phenomenon may last until February 2026 and gradually transition to ENSO neutral, with a probability of over 45% of turning into a weak El Nino phenomenon between June and August, which may intensify weather disturbances in the rubber - producing areas [1]. - There are precipitation and temperature issues in various rubber - producing areas around the world. For example, there are low - temperature and less - rain conditions in China's Yunnan and Hainan, which may lead to drought and forest fire risks; some areas in Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries also face different degrees of precipitation and temperature problems that affect rubber production [2][4]. - The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with the high - yield period from September to November and the low - yield period from February to March. The production cycle of each producing area is affected by geographical and climate characteristics, and different weather factors need to be focused on [215]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Important Meteorological Warnings - Climate Dynamics: The Nino3.4 index is - 0.5 (- 0.1), and the weak La Nina phenomenon continues. It may last until February 2026 and gradually transition to ENSO neutral, with over 45% probability of turning into a weak El Nino between June and August. The DMI index of the Indian Ocean Dipole is - 0.63, and the Madden - Julian Oscillation is in the third - stage area with an increasing trend [1]. - Chinese Producing Areas: Yunnan is in the off - season, with low precipitation and normal soil humidity. Low - temperature and less - rain conditions lead to thorough leaf - falling of rubber trees, and the risk of powdery mildew spread is low. In Hainan, rainfall is less than the same period, soil humidity is decreasing, and there may be large - scale meteorological drought in spring, with high forest fire risks [2]. - Foreign Producing Areas: Thailand is out of the rainy season, with low soil humidity and less rainfall recently. Vietnam has less rain, and the glue output in high - altitude areas is affected by low - temperature at night. Cambodia is at the end of the tapping season with less rain. Myanmar has a risk of drought due to less rain. Laos has less rain and decreasing soil humidity. Indonesia has increased rain disturbances, and Malaysia is in the peak rainy season [4][5]. 3.2 Producing Area Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides the weekly precipitation data of major natural rubber producing areas, including monthly cumulative precipitation, monthly year - on - year percentage, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly difference, this - week forecast precipitation, and next - week forecast precipitation [7][9]. 3.3 Producing Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - There is a tropical depression in the south - west Indian Ocean, which may slightly affect the southeastern Indian and Sri Lankan producing areas. Thailand's main producing areas have less rain, and most river water levels are low. Yunnan and Hainan have less precipitation, high forest fire risks, and the weak El Nino from June to August may affect the first - half - year output if there is still less rain in the second quarter [10]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Producing Area - Chinese Producing Areas: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts for Hainan and Yunnan, as well as various meteorological indicator tracking data such as daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomaly, temperature comparison, and average wind speed [12][16]. - Indochina Peninsula Producing Areas: It provides 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos [62][64]. - Malay Archipelago Producing Areas: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines [128][135]. - South Asian Producing Areas: It provides 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for India and Sri Lanka [162][164]. - West African Producing Areas: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for the Cote d'Ivoire producing area [193][194]. 3.5 Appendix - Appendix 1: Global natural rubber is mainly planted in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%. Thailand's planting area accounts for about 1/4, and Indonesia's about 1/5. In terms of output, Thailand accounts for over 30% globally, Indonesia about 15%, and Cote d'Ivoire over 10% [203]. - Appendix 2: The phenological period of rubber trees is divided into five stages, and the new - leaf growth period is sensitive to weather and prone to diseases and pests. Long - term natural rubber output depends on planting area and tree - age structure, while short - term output is affected by weather [212][213]. - Appendix 3: The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with the high - yield period from September to November and the low - yield period from February to March. The production cycle of each producing area is affected by geographical and climate characteristics [215].