有色金属周度观点-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their market trends, supply - demand situations, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies based on these analyses [2] 3. Summary by Variety Copper - Market Trend: Last week, copper prices oscillated at a relatively high level, similar to gold. Before the Spring Festival, the overall open interest may shrink to 550,000 lots. In the long - term, the US $12 billion commercial stockpiling plan and the call from the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association to increase commercial reserves may encourage long - term funds to go long on copper at low prices. The price is expected to be lower before the Spring Festival and higher after it [2] - Domestic Supply and Demand: Copper concentrate supply is tight. Domestic smelter output is expected to be stable around the Spring Festival. The Shanghai copper premium is 35 yuan, and the Guangdong discount is 105 yuan. The social inventory is 331,300 tons [2] - Overseas Situation: There are many news of production cuts from traditional mainstream mining companies. The market is concerned about the US government's control over long - term copper resources. The LME copper inventory has increased to 184,300 tons, and the LME spot discount is $77 [2] - Investment Strategy: Hold a light position or conduct inter - period reverse arbitrage during the Spring Festival [2] Aluminum and Alumina - Market Trend: The market continues to oscillate. The domestic operating capacity of alumina is 95.05 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.5 million tons. The alumina balance remains in surplus, and the weekly inventory has increased by 55,000 tons to 5.114 million tons [2] - Demand: The operating rate of domestic downstream leading aluminum enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 59.4% last week. High aluminum prices have continuously suppressed downstream demand, and some processing enterprises have entered the holiday in advance [2] - Inventory and Spot: The overall demand is weak. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 33,000 tons to 829,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods increased by 26,000 tons to 267,000 tons. The spot premium and discount have declined [2] - Investment Strategy: Pay attention to the support effectiveness of the recent low point of 23,800 yuan. If it breaks, it will seek support at 23,000 yuan. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options [2] Zinc - Market Trend: The "Wash Panic" accelerated the release of bearish sentiment. The Shanghai zinc price fell 5.36% last week, and the decline slowed down at the 24,500 yuan/ton level. The LME zinc price oscillated at a high level and remained in the rebound channel [2] - Spot and Supply: The LME zinc inventory decreased slightly to 107,600 tons, and the 0 - 3 month spot discount narrowed to $21.56/ton. The SMM zinc social inventory increased to 148,500 tons, and the fundamental strength of the domestic and foreign markets showed differentiation again. The loss of zinc spot imports expanded to over 3,000 yuan/ton [2] - Consumption: As the Spring Festival approaches, most terminals are on holiday, and the operating rate of downstream zinc enterprises has dropped significantly. Only a small number of enterprises make rigid purchases at low prices. High prices suppress demand, and the downstream operating rate is expected to continue to decline in the next two weeks [2] - Investment Strategy: The Shanghai zinc market starts to reduce volatility for adjustment. The option double - selling strategy has good returns, and the profit space for single - side futures trading is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Lead - Market Trend: Last week, the lead prices of both domestic and foreign markets accelerated to test the lower support of the consolidation range. The Shanghai lead price fell 2.1%, and the LME lead price fell 1.48%. The import window remained open [2] - Spot and Supply: The LME lead inventory increased to 233,000 tons. The overseas surplus pressure was transmitted to the domestic market. The operating rates of SMM primary lead smelters and secondary lead smelters decreased. Some primary lead smelters in Hunan and Yunnan carried out maintenance or production cuts, and smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices [2] - Consumption: As the Spring Festival approaches, only a small number of downstream enterprises make rigid purchases at low prices. The spot trading volume has declined. The holiday time of battery enterprises has increased compared with previous years. Pay attention to the lead ingot inventory accumulation after the festival [2] - Investment Strategy: The lead price is at a low level, and the capital divergence has increased. The overall surplus situation remains unchanged. In the short term, both supply and demand are weak. The Shanghai lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,500 - 17,800 yuan/ton [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market Trend: The Shanghai nickel price fell from a high level last week, and the market trading volume decreased while the open interest slowly increased. The Shanghai stainless steel price showed a similar trend [2] - Macro and Demand: The social inventory of stainless steel has continued to increase. Market confidence has declined, and trading is light. Only a small amount of rigid replenishment is made. Terminal downstream procurement has basically ended [2] - Spot and Supply: The Jinchuan nickel premium is 9,500 yuan, the imported nickel discount is 50 yuan, and the electrowon nickel is at par. The pure nickel inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 73,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increased by 15,000 tons to 869,000 tons [2] - Investment Strategy: Market fear of high prices has emerged. It is recommended to be cautious [2] Tin - Market Trend: The Shanghai tin price is prone to follow the silver price. It shows a unilateral downward trend with relatively limited rebound. It is a small - volume variety, and the trading volume and open interest have a great impact around the Spring Festival [2] - Supply: The Indonesian exchange traded 2,720 tons of tin ingots in late January. There was a landslide in an Indonesian tin mine, but there is no news of impact on production. The earthquake in Myanmar is far from the Wa State production area. The market is concerned about the resumption of supply in the Wa State [2] - Consumption: The sharp decline in tin prices gives downstream enterprises an opportunity to stock up before the festival. The Steel Union tin inventory decreased by 1,658 tons to 9,898 tons last week. The global semiconductor sales in December 2025 continued to increase month - on - month [2] - Investment Strategy: Pay attention to the high volatility of the overseas market with light trading. Also, pay attention to the inventory changes during and after the Spring Festival. The out - of - the - money call option selling strategy for the 2603 contract has realized profits. It was recommended to wait and see or go short with a light position against the MA20 moving average last week [2] Lithium Carbonate - Futures Market: The lithium carbonate futures oscillated downward last week, and the market trading was active. The exchange policy affected market participation. A large number of hedging positions have been closed during the rapid price increase [2] - Spot Performance: The spot price of Shanghai battery - grade lithium carbonate has dropped sharply. Mines are not willing to sell due to the price decline, and downstream enterprises have sufficient previous inventory and have lowered their acceptance prices for new orders [2] - Macro and Demand: The external strength has weakened significantly. The rebound of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is not enough to support market confidence. The power battery orders may decline, and the production schedule in February is expected to be greatly affected [2] - Supply Factors: The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 105,000 tons. The smelter inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 43,700 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 43,000 tons. The de - stocking speed has slowed down [2] - Investment Strategy: The lithium carbonate futures price has crashed, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely high. Pay attention to risk prevention and control [2] Industrial Silicon - Price: The industrial silicon futures oscillated downward, dragged down by the general decline of the non - ferrous metal sector and the expected implementation of organic silicon emission reduction. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market stocking is coming to an end, and the trading activity has decreased [2] - Supply and Demand: The supply side has shrunk significantly. The production cuts of large Xinjiang factories have led to a significant decline in the number of open furnaces. Downstream polysilicon is expected to cut production by more than 20,000 tons month - on - month. If the organic silicon industry achieves its emission reduction target in the first quarter, the industrial silicon demand will be dragged down by about 90,000 tons [2] - Inventory: The Xinjiang factory inventory has decreased slightly, and the social inventory has climbed to 562,000 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 8,000 tons [2] - Investment Strategy: In the short term, the price is affected by the volatility transmission of the metal sector and the negative news of the organic silicon industry. Pay attention to the support at 8,400 yuan/ton [2] Polysilicon - Price: The spot price of polysilicon has increased. The N - type re - feed material is 53,600 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,300 yuan/ton. Affected by the industry meeting last week, enterprises are holding up prices, but there is no spot transaction. The futures price briefly soared due to news, but the capacity expectation has not been realized, and the price has returned to oscillate around the 50,000 yuan/ton mark [2] - Supply and Demand: The production of leading enterprises decreased in January, and the monthly output dropped to around 100,000 tons. The output in February is expected to further drop below 80,000 tons. The production schedule of the silicon wafer sector in February is generally stable, and there may be a small supply - demand gap in polysilicon in February [2] - Inventory: The latest inventory of silicon material manufacturers is 341,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons [2] - Investment Strategy: The industry association announced the domestic photovoltaic new installation target of 180 - 240 GW in 2026, which meets market expectations. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reiterated the anti - involution orientation of the industry. After the emotional correction of the market, it is expected to oscillate around the 50,000 yuan/ton mark [2]