【冠通期货研究报告】PP日报：高开后震荡运行-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PP supply-demand pattern has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. With low upstream petrochemical inventory and the current basis being repaired, it is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Due to the new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently and the start-up rate being higher than that of PP, coupled with the fact that the centralized demand for mulch film has not yet started, it is expected that the L-PP spread will decline [1]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week-on-week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving of the main drawstring decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week-on-week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On February 10, the overhaul devices such as the first line of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase II restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 81.5%, at a neutral to low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring increased to about 29.5%. Petrochemical destocking in February was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. On the cost side, the US and Iran will hold a new round of negotiations, but the US warned that ships flying the US flag should stay as far away from Iranian waters as possible when sailing in the Strait of Hormuz, and the market is worried about a military conflict between the two sides, so the crude oil price rebounded. There has been a slight decrease in overhaul devices recently. The prices of downstream BOPP films in some areas are stable, the operating rate of downstream plastic weaving has decreased, and its new orders are limited. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the number of terminal shutdowns for holidays has further increased, and most downstream stocking has been completed [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract opened higher and then oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,627 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,691 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,688 yuan/ton, above the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 0.44%. The trading volume decreased by 1,773 lots to 488,568 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot prices of PP in various regions have partially declined. The drawstring is reported at 6,310 - 6,850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 10, the overhaul devices such as the first line of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase II restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 81.5%, at a neutral to low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring increased to about 29.5% [4]. - Demand: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week-on-week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving of the main drawstring decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week-on-week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: The early petrochemical inventory on Tuesday decreased by 40,000 tons to 460,000 tons week-on-week, 35,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Petrochemical destocking is acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years [4]. Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 04 rose to $69 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $825 per ton week-on-week [6].