【冠通期货研究报告】PVC日报：震荡运行-20260210

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Although the current supply and demand situation is not optimistic, with the ecological environment department focusing on key links such as the research and development of mercury - free catalysts and the continuation of export rush, there are still policy and maintenance expectations after the Spring Festival. However, due to the large fluctuations in the PVC market, cautious operation is recommended before the festival [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.26% and is at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate decreased by 3.33 percentage points, and the downstream's willingness to actively stock up is low. After the price increase, domestic export orders decreased month - on - month, but previous export rush reduced the sales pressure on enterprises. Social inventory continued to increase and is still at a high level. The real estate is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, but the current production decline is limited, and the PVC operating rate is expected to change little this week. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. It is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand in February, and the downstream is gradually entering the holiday mode, resulting in light spot transactions and increasing social inventory [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,932 yuan/ton, the highest price was 5,005 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,971 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.44%. The position increased by 20,213 lots to 1,121,479 lots [2] 3. Basis - On February 10, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 4,765 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,971 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 206 yuan/ton, weakening by 5 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a low level [3] 4. Fundamental Tracking Supply - Affected by devices such as Shandong Hengtong and Henan Yuhang, the PVC operating rate increased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.26%, at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year of Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of 2025. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua had a trial production in December 2025 [4] Demand - The real estate is still in the adjustment stage. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%; the residential sales area decreased by 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 13.0%. The new housing construction area was 587.70 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the new residential construction area was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The housing completion area was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; the residential completion area was 428.30 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. As of the week of February 8, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 18.54% month - on - month and was at a low level in the same lunar period in recent years [5] Inventory - As of the week of February 5, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.71% month - on - month to 1.227 million tons, 63.28% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and was still at a high level [6]