沪铅期货周报-20260210

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the Shanghai lead futures market is currently in a weak state, with both futures and spot prices declining. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, the post - holiday consumption recovery and inventory reduction need to be monitored. [2][3][5][6] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract of Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile downward trend this week, with prices closing down for five consecutive days. The opening price on February 2 was 16,960 yuan/ton, and the closing price on February 6 dropped to 16,580 yuan/ton, with a cumulative weekly decline of 2.15%. The weekly fluctuation range was 16,560 - 17,050 yuan/ton. [2] 3.2 Spot Market Analysis - Domestic lead spot prices weakened synchronously, showing a strong correlation with futures prices. The 1 lead spot price in Shanghai dropped from 16,370 - 16,500 yuan/ton on Monday to 16,270 - 16,410 yuan/ton on Friday, with an average weekly decline of about 130 yuan/ton. The Chinese average price of 1 lead decreased from 16,640 yuan/ton on February 2 to 16,510 yuan/ton on February 6, a decrease of 0.78%. [3] 3.3 Market Dynamics - The number of registered warrants of Shanghai lead in domestic exchanges showed an upward trend from Monday to Friday, indicating increased supply - side pressure. Secondary lead enterprises took early holidays due to losses and insufficient orders, and battery factories did not start pre - holiday inventory building. Under the weak supply - demand pattern, lead prices were under pressure. [4] 3.4 Market Outlook - From a technical perspective, Shanghai lead prices broke through multiple support levels and the previous intensive trading range, increasing technical pressure. In the short term, the weak supply - demand pattern is difficult to change, with high inventory and the consumption off - season. The net short positions of the top 20 members remained high, indicating that institutions are bearish on the short - term trend. In the medium and long term, attention should be paid to post - holiday consumption recovery and inventory reduction. [5][6]