尿素日报：震荡偏弱-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market opened low and moved lower today, with the spot price rising as some factories completed holiday orders and held prices, while others actively attracted orders. The fundamentals show that gas - based plants have basically resumed production, and production will be normal during the Spring Festival. The agricultural demand is fair, and the industrial demand is weakening marginally. The supply - demand balance supports the urea market. The impact of the Indian tender on the domestic market is small, and before the Spring Festival, the trading volume will be low with limited price fluctuations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The urea futures opened low and moved down today, and the spot price increased. The gas - based plants have mostly resumed production and have no long - term shutdown plan in the short term. Agricultural demand is okay, and the wheat top - dressing season is coming after the Spring Festival. Industrial demand is weakening, and the inventory of factories has been slightly digested. The supply - demand balance supports the market. The impact of the Indian tender on the domestic market is limited, and price fluctuations are expected to be small before the Spring Festival [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1788 yuan/ton, closed at 1785 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.61% and a position of 218,805 lots (- 6887 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions decreased by 5480 lots and short positions decreased by 2892 lots. For example, Orient Futures had a net long - position decrease of 4114 lots and CICC Wealth had a net long - position decrease of 1075 lots; Galaxy Futures had a net short - position decrease of 285 lots and Ruida Futures had a net short - position decrease of 1235 lots. On February 10, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 11036, a net increase of 176 from the previous trading day [2] Spot - Some factories completed holiday orders and held prices, while others actively attracted orders, leading to an overall increase in the spot price. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton [3] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot price and the futures closing price both increased today. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was 2 yuan/ton (+ 18 yuan/ton) [7] Supply - According to Feiyitong data, on February 10, 2026, the national daily urea production was 215,600 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 86.41% [8]