国金期货尿素月报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - From January 5th to February 6th, the main contract of urea futures presented a game pattern of "high supply and off - season demand", with a fluctuation range of 1756 - 1830 yuan/ton. In the short term, affected by weak pre - holiday demand and abundant supply, the futures price may fluctuate. In the long run, the expectation of Indian tenders, the start of spring plowing fertilizer preparation, and the inventory depletion trend will provide support, and the price center is expected to gradually move up. Attention should be paid to the implementation of export orders and the recovery rhythm of agricultural demand [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract of urea showed a "first decline then rise" trend this month. It declined in early January due to increased supply, rebounded in mid - January with inventory depletion, and fell since February due to weakening pre - holiday demand. The capital sentiment was cautious. The spot premium pattern was stable, and the basis fluctuated slightly. The basis was significantly repaired compared with the average in January, indicating stronger support on the spot side [3] 3.2 Influencing Factors - Supply side: The production remained at a high level, and the operating rate increased steadily. On February 4th, the daily output was 20.99 tons, rising to 21.40 tons on February 5th, a year - on - year increase of 1.57 tons (+7.9%). The average operating rate in January was 85.78%, 2.56 percentage points higher than the same period last year. On February 4th, the operating rate reached 89.14%, a new high for the year. The supply pressure was difficult to ease in the short term [5][6] - Demand side: It was the end of pre - holiday stockpiling, and regional price differentiation occurred. The top - dressing of winter wheat in the north was gradually ending, the number of advance orders of enterprises decreased, and there was resistance to high - priced purchases. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises remained low, the demand for melamine recovered but the volume was small. Overall, downstream purchases were mainly for rigid needs, and new orders were scarce [6] - Inventory: The factory inventory continued to decline, and the port inventory was at a low level. As of February 4th, the urea enterprise inventory was 91.85 tons, a decrease of 2.63 tons (-2.79%) from the previous week, with an 8 - week consecutive decline and a year - on - year decrease of 53.16 tons. The port inventory was 17.2 tons, remaining at a low level, and export shipments were mainly based on previous orders [6] - Import and export: The export resilience remained, and the expectation of Indian tenders increased. In 2025, the cumulative export was 489.35 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1678.3%. In December, the export was 27.83 tons, maintaining high - level prosperity. The market expected that India might announce a new round of import tenders in February (with a scale of about 1.5 million tons), and the international price was rising, so the export window was expected to open [6] 3.3 Associated Variety Linkage - Coal and crude oil: Coal - based urea accounted for more than 70%, and the price fluctuation of thermal coal directly affected the production cost. The average WTI crude oil price in January was 58.4 US dollars per barrel, and the rising energy cost provided bottom - line support for urea [7] - Compound fertilizer: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was positively correlated with the urea purchase volume. The compound fertilizer production in January increased by 3.2% year - on - year, but short - term demand was difficult to expand due to the end of pre - holiday stockpiling [7] - International urea: The FOB price in Egypt rose from 452.51 US dollars per ton on January 8th to 477.51 US dollars per ton on January 29th, a rise of 5.5%. The high international price might drive domestic exports and spot sentiment [7] 3.4 Market Outlook - In 2026, the new production capacity was limited, and the elimination of old production capacity accelerated, with the annual supply growth rate likely to drop below 3%. From March to July was the peak season for domestic spring plowing fertilizer use, and the agricultural demand in the second quarter was expected to increase by 15% - 20% quarter - on - quarter, which would support the price center to rise. If the Indian tender in February was successfully implemented, the export volume was expected to rebound to over 500,000 tons. The traditional maintenance season of gas - based urea enterprises (February - March) might lead to a short - term supply contraction, and coal price fluctuations needed continuous attention. In the short term, the urea futures were suppressed by high supply and weak pre - holiday demand, and the futures price might fluctuate in a range. In the medium and long term, the results of Indian tenders, the progress of spring plowing fertilizer preparation, and the inventory depletion speed needed to be tracked [9]