战略数据研究|专题报告：春节配置，谁主沉浮

Group 1: Market Analysis - The report recommends maintaining a medium to high position in stocks during the holiday, emphasizing strict structural optimization[2] - Historical data shows a high probability of A-shares rising in the 10 trading days after the Spring Festival, with a style shift from large-cap defensive to small-cap growth[2] - As of February 6, 2026, the PE-TTM of the Shanghai Composite Index is approximately 14.59, at the 86.46th percentile of the past 10 years, indicating a shift from "cheap" to "reasonably expensive" for large-cap stocks[5][19] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on AI applications, humanoid robots, and cyclical sectors benefiting from price increases, anticipating a "spring excitement" phase post-holiday[8][39] - The report highlights that the small-cap index (CSI 1000) has a significantly higher probability of gains post-holiday, with an average increase of 3.15%[24] - Defensive strategies should include high-dividend sectors like banks and operators, which can hedge against external uncertainties during the holiday[41] Group 3: Risk Factors - The analysis is based on historical data and does not guarantee future performance, highlighting the potential for market volatility due to domestic and international policy changes[9][43] - The report notes that the current market is influenced by a "weak volume, rising price" scenario, with a lack of strong stimulus expected during the policy vacuum period[36]