港股投资策略报告：冰火两重天的港股如何配置？-20260210

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant divergence in the Hong Kong stock market, with technology and telecommunications sectors dragging down the Hang Seng Index, while other industries have shown positive returns. The Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Total Return Index has reached a historical high, and the relatively balanced Hong Kong Stock Connect Index has outperformed the A-share CSI 800 Index [2][13]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has faced pressure from short sellers, exacerbated by multiple narratives, including concerns over tax policy adjustments and the potential disruption of AI on traditional business models, leading to a negative sentiment in the market [2][13]. Group 2 - The outlook suggests that the Hong Kong market may see an influx of foreign capital in 2026 due to the ongoing loose liquidity environment and the potential for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates. Recent trends indicate a significant increase in net inflows from the Stock Connect program, particularly into technology stocks that have experienced substantial declines [3][24]. - Domestic investors are also accelerating their investments in Hong Kong stocks, taking advantage of market adjustments. The average daily net inflow from the Stock Connect has rebounded to a high level not seen since 2024, indicating renewed interest in the market [3][24]. Group 3 - The report recommends a strategy of combining "technology as a core holding + cyclical recovery + beta opportunities in dividends" to embrace the upcoming spring market. Current market sentiment is at a relatively low point, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound [4][31]. - Technology remains a long-term focus, with AI expected to be a key driver. The report notes that leading internet and application companies have already priced in pessimistic expectations, making them attractive for investment as they are near historical valuation lows [4][31]. Group 4 - The cyclical leaders in the Hong Kong market are expected to see improvements as the Chinese economy transitions towards "slower growth + increased efficiency." This shift is anticipated to enhance the competitive landscape and gradually restore profitability for leading companies in sectors such as chemicals, real estate, and machinery [4][34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer data during the Spring Festival as a potential catalyst for market performance, particularly for consumer service leaders in sectors like gaming, dining, and travel [4][34]. Group 5 - The report identifies that the ongoing geopolitical landscape in 2026 is more favorable for Chinese assets, with the risk premium of the Hang Seng Index relative to 10-year U.S. Treasury yields being significantly higher than that of developed markets. This situation is expected to attract more foreign capital to Hong Kong stocks [5][22]. - A stable RMB is projected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets, with historical trends indicating that significant RMB appreciation often correlates with rising Hong Kong stock prices [5][22].