造纸行业月报：1月行业提价逐步落地，盈利进入改善通道-20260210

Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - In January, hardwood pulp prices increased, while white cardboard continued to issue price increase notices. Cultural paper prices stabilized, but profitability faced slight pressure. The hardwood pulp market is expected to see supply decrease initially before increasing, with insufficient demand follow-up. White paper prices are gradually transmitting, while black paper prices are under pressure [2][3] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Prices: The market average price for 70g hardwood high white double glue paper as of January 28 is 4725 CNY/ton, down 0.08% month-on-month and down 12.66% year-on-year. The price stability is influenced by cautious purchasing from distributors and limited new orders from the publishing sector [7][19] - Supply and Demand: A decrease in operating rates is expected to exacerbate supply-demand contradictions, with a forecasted supply-demand gap widening in January and February [9][10] - Profitability: The average theoretical gross margin for double glue paper as of January 28 is -11.29%, indicating a decline in profitability due to rising costs and falling prices [19] White Cardboard - Prices: The market average price for 250-400g flat white cardboard as of January 28 is 4268 CNY/ton, up 0.73% month-on-month but down 0.74% year-on-year. Price increases are limited due to cautious replenishment intentions from distributors [22][32] - Supply and Demand: The supply-demand gap is expected to continue to widen, with supply increases outpacing demand increases [24][25] - Profitability: The gross margin for white cardboard as of January 28 is slightly down, reflecting a situation where price increases do not keep pace with rising costs [32] Boxboard and Corrugated Paper - Prices: The average price for boxboard as of January 28 is 3584 CNY/ton, down 7.15% month-on-month. The average price for AA-grade corrugated paper is 2751 CNY/ton, down 11.60% month-on-month [35][36] - Supply and Demand: The supply-demand gap is expected to increase, with demand decreasing and inventory levels rising [37][38] - Profitability: The gross margin for corrugated paper is down to reflect that price declines exceed cost declines, while boxboard profitability is also under pressure due to similar dynamics [49][50]