兴业证券:财富管理与机构业务双轮驱动,新领导班子注入新活力-20260211

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The new leadership team has injected fresh vitality into the company, focusing on wealth management and institutional business as dual drivers for growth [7][25] - The company has a strong governance structure that has enabled it to rise from a lower ranking to a top position in the industry over the past 25 years [12][23] - The company is positioned to benefit from regional policy dividends and industrial upgrades due to its provincial background and control over significant local resources [23][25] - The company's operational indicators are entering a recovery growth phase, with significant increases in revenue and net profit expected in the coming years [25][27] Summary by Sections 1. New Leadership and Organizational Restructuring - The new chairman has initiated organizational restructuring across three main lines: wealth management, research and institutional services, and risk management [12][15] - The company has a stable governance structure that enhances strategic execution and decision-making [12][23] 2. Wealth Management and Institutional Business - The company is actively transforming its wealth management strategy, launching a new brand "Zhi Ji Li Cai" and three service solutions to enhance customer engagement [31][32] - The company has seen a significant increase in its investment advisory business, with a 526% growth in total assets under management as of October 2025 [32][34] 3. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, estimating net profits of 2.945 billion, 3.787 billion, and 4.161 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36%, 29%, and 10% [1][25] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to recover steadily, with a reported ROE of 4.37% for the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [27][25] 4. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company holds a dominant position in the regional capital market, serving over 70% of provincial state-owned enterprises and local governments [23][25] - The company has a diversified asset management strategy, controlling significant stakes in various funds, which has greatly enhanced its profit contribution [40][43]