造纸行业月报：1月行业提价逐步落地，盈利进入改善通道

Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - In January, hardwood pulp prices increased, while white cardboard continued to issue price increase notices. Cultural paper prices stabilized, but profitability faced slight pressure. The hardwood pulp market is expected to see supply decrease initially before increasing, with insufficient demand following. White paper prices are gradually transmitting, while black paper prices are under pressure [2][3] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Prices: The market average price for 70g hardwood high white double glue paper as of January 28 is 4725 CNY/ton, down 0.08% month-on-month and down 12.66% year-on-year [7] - Supply and Demand: The operating rate decreased month-on-month, leading to intensified supply-demand contradictions. The supply-demand gap is expected to continue to widen in January and February [9][10] - Profitability: The average theoretical gross margin for double glue paper as of January 28 is -11.29%, a decrease of 0.68 percentage points from December 2025 [19] White Cardboard - Prices: The market average price for 250-400g flat white cardboard as of January 28 is 4268 CNY/ton, up 0.73% month-on-month and down 0.74% year-on-year [22] - Supply and Demand: The supply-demand gap is expected to continue to widen, with supply increasing more than demand [24][25] - Profitability: The gross margin for white cardboard as of January 28 is down 0.02 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a decline in profitability despite price increases [32] Boxboard and Corrugated Paper - Prices: The average price for boxboard as of January 28 is 3584 CNY/ton, down 7.15% month-on-month and down 5.06% year-on-year. The average price for AA-grade corrugated paper is 2751 CNY/ton, down 11.60% month-on-month and down 5.82% year-on-year [35][36] - Supply and Demand: The supply-demand gap is expected to increase, with demand decreasing and inventory levels rising [37][38] - Profitability: The gross margin for corrugated paper as of January 28 is down 3.63 percentage points, while the gross margin for boxboard is down 0.85 percentage points, indicating a decline in profitability [49]