中原期货晨会纪要-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the overall liquidity will remain abundant [7]. - Global asset allocation is expected to gradually shift from a high - concentration allocation of US dollar assets to a more diversified layout in the next 3 - 5 years, and Chinese assets are favored by foreign institutions [8]. - Most commodities in the market are in a state of supply - demand game, with prices mainly in an interval - oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to operate lightly or wait and see before the Spring Festival [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and carry out regular treasury bond trading operations [7]. - Ray Dalio warns that the US is on the verge of a "fifth stage" of the imperial cycle, and suggests that gold should account for 5% - 15% of the investment portfolio [7]. - China encourages the cultivation and development of future industries to seize the high - ground of science and technology and industry [7]. - On Tuesday, the A - share market showed a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.13% and achieving six consecutive positive days. The Hong Kong stock market also rose, and Chinese assets are favored by foreign institutions [8]. - Five departments jointly issued an opinion to strengthen the construction of information and communication capabilities to support the development of low - altitude infrastructure [9]. - Alphabet issued 100 - year bonds for the first time, with over 7 times over - subscription, and its global debt issuance exceeded $30 billion [9]. 3.2 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Sugar: The domestic sugar price is expected to maintain an interval - oscillating pattern, with potential for a pre - holiday corrective rebound. The upper pressure is around 5300 yuan, and the lower support is around 5250 yuan [12]. - Corn: The corn price has broken through the original prediction range. One can pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions after the price retraces to the new support level of 2270 yuan [12]. - Peanuts: The peanut price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt an interval - trading strategy [12]. - Pigs: The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the demand increase is less than expected. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [12]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs continues to decline, and the futures market maintains an oscillation, with near - term strength and long - term weakness [13]. - Red dates: The price of red dates is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures market is looking for lower support [13]. - Cotton: The cotton price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. One can consider laying out long positions at low prices [13]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic soda: The caustic soda market is in an oversupply situation. One should pay attention to the impact of supply - side disturbances on prices and operate with a light position during the holiday [13]. - Coking coal and coke: Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13]. - Logs: The log price is expected to maintain an interval - oscillating pattern, with the upper pressure around 780 yuan and the lower support around 765 yuan [15]. - Pulp: The pulp market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy in the 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton interval [15]. - Offset paper: The offset paper market is in a weak supply - demand balance. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions lightly when the price is high [16]. - Urea: The domestic urea market price is running strongly. One should pay attention to the changes in the start - up of downstream urea enterprises around the Spring Festival [16]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper and aluminum: The copper price is affected by the weakening US dollar, but the weak domestic demand restricts its upward space. The aluminum market has increasing supply pressure and weakening demand, and it is recommended to operate with a light position during the holiday [17]. - Alumina: The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, waiting for new market drivers, and it is recommended to operate with a light position during the holiday [17]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Before the Spring Festival, the steel price is expected to be under pressure and run weakly [17]. - Ferroalloys: The ferroalloy market is affected by the decline of the black series, but the cost has certain support. It is recommended to operate with a light position during the holiday [17][19]. 3.2.4 Lithium Carbonate The lithium carbonate price shows signs of stabilizing. One can pay attention to the opportunity of laying out long positions after the price confirms stability after the Spring Festival [19]. 3.2.5 Options and Finance - Stock index futures and options: The stock index is mainly in an oscillating pattern. One can consider buying a straddle strategy during the holiday. The A - share market is expected to maintain an interval - oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival, and the probability of resuming an upward trend after the holiday is high [19][20].