美联储再度强调独立性，中国央行继续适度宽松

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - shares are trading in a narrow range with shrinking volume, and technology stocks are still leading. Hong Kong stocks have stopped falling and rebounded recently, potentially presenting a right - side allocation opportunity. Overall, domestic equity risks are controllable, and a spring rally is expected [1][12]. - Gold prices are oscillating and closing lower, and silver is weakening. Pre - holiday funds are gradually reducing positions and flowing out of precious metals. The Fed officials' speeches defend independence, and the monetary policy has entered a short - term wait - and - see stage, lacking incremental stimulus. The US retail sales data in January unexpectedly weakened [2][15]. - The market for treasury bond futures is oscillating in a narrow range. There is short - term upward momentum in the market, but the cost - performance of chasing the rise is not high. After the upward momentum of the market slows down, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [3][19]. - Steel prices continue to oscillate weakly. The fundamental pressure before the holiday is increasing, the inventory accumulation pressure of each variety is rising, and the order situation is average, which suppresses steel prices. However, the cautious market sentiment also reduces post - holiday risks, and attention should be paid to potential undervalued opportunities [4][22]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the cotton yarn production and sales continue to slow down. The spinning mill operation rate has slightly declined, but Xinjiang spinning mills will maintain a relatively high operation rate during the Spring Festival, and the current yarn inventory of spinning mills is not high [5][35]. - The main ports in the country are severely congested. It is recommended to view the market with a bullish oscillation mindset recently and adopt a wait - and - see approach for now [6][60]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Multiple humanoid robot companies have started the IPO process, and the industry is accelerating from technology R & D to commercial implementation. The "Qiushi" magazine has called for accelerating the cultivation of future industries. A - shares are trading in a narrow range with shrinking volume, and technology stocks are leading. Hong Kong stocks may present a right - side allocation opportunity. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed official Logan emphasized the independence of monetary policy. Gold prices are oscillating and closing lower, and silver is weakening. Pre - holiday funds are flowing out of precious metals. The US retail sales data in January unexpectedly weakened. It is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to rise [14][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank released the fourth - quarter 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report, stating that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The market for treasury bond futures is oscillating in a narrow range. There is short - term upward momentum, but chasing the rise is not cost - effective. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the upward momentum slows down [17][18][19]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable on February 10. The supply of market coal is tightening, and port inventories are decreasing. Considering factors such as domestic coal mine seasonal production cuts, import coal policy risks, and high seasonal daily consumption, short - term coal prices are expected to be strongly supported [20]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - 12 out of 16 auto companies had year - on - year sales growth in January. Steel prices continue to oscillate weakly. The fundamental pressure before the holiday is increasing, and the inventory accumulation pressure of each variety is rising, which suppresses steel prices. However, the cautious market sentiment reduces post - holiday risks. It is recommended to view steel prices with an oscillating mindset and hold light positions to pay attention to risks before the holiday [21][22][23]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The Liusi Iron Mine in Huoqiu County, Anhui Province is expected to be put into production in 2027. Iron ore prices are oscillating weakly and are expected to continue to be under pressure around the Spring Festival. The market is cautious about post - holiday steel orders, and the iron - making water of steel mills is expected to change little. After the seasonal restocking of iron ore is over, buying power weakens. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory accumulation and order situation of finished products around the Spring Festival [24][25]. 3.2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the northwest market is stable, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. Before the holiday, the supply is tightening, and the downstream restocking demand is coming to an end. The coking coal futures market oscillates. It is recommended to pay close attention to policy adjustments and post - holiday demand recovery [26][27]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA has raised the global soybean ending inventory. Although the February USDA supply - demand report is bearish, the CBOT soybeans still closed higher overnight due to optimistic market expectations for US soybean demand and the new high of US soybean oil. The domestic spot market is entering the holiday state, and trading is becoming light. It is expected that the soybean meal futures price will oscillate and be weaker than the overseas market [28]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil export volume from February 1 - 10 decreased by 14.25% month - on - month. The Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of January decreased by 7.72% month - on - month, exceeding market expectations. The palm oil price jumped up after the release of the data. However, the export data in February is poor, and the market sentiment is weak. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [29][30][32]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of February 6, 2026, the cotton planting in Brazil was 88.1% completed. The US cotton listing inspection is nearing the end, and the progress is slower than last year. As the Spring Festival approaches, the cotton yarn production and sales continue to slow down, and the spinning mill operation rate has slightly declined. However, Xinjiang spinning mills will maintain a relatively high operation rate during the Spring Festival, and the current yarn inventory of spinning mills is not high. It is expected that cotton prices will oscillate around the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to macro - level dynamics [33][34][36]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australian lithium miner PLS signed a lithium supply agreement with a Chinese company. In January 2026, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased month - on - month. It is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to destock in February. The power - battery end sales data in January is not optimistic, but the energy - storage end is expected to be more optimistic. It is recommended to view lithium carbonate from a bullish perspective and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after the position and volatility stabilize [37][38][39]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The expansion project of MMG's Khoemacau Copper Mine in Botswana started. The CEO of Anglo American Resources called on Africa to turn policy intentions into actual implementation. It is expected that copper prices will continue to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips [40][41][42]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Zijin Mining announced its production plan for lead and zinc. The Shanghai lead futures oscillated and rebounded at a low level. The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to medium - term long - position opportunities [43][44]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price oscillated. The zinc ore production expectations may change. The LME zinc inventory decreased, and the SHFE zinc warehouse receipts increased. The zinc smelting production in February decreased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and use call options instead of direct trading [45][46]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin futures showed a discount. The SHFE tin warehouse receipts increased, and the LME tin inventory increased. The supply of tin is expected to be less tight, but there are still uncertainties. The demand is weak. It is expected that the tin price will oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to supply recovery and post - holiday consumption warming [46][49][50]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA's forecast of US crude oil production for this year and next year is basically the same as before. The API crude oil inventory increased significantly. Oil prices are oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the follow - up negotiations between the US and Iran [50][51][52]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Shandong Xinyue Petrochemical resumed production. The LPG price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation [53][54]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA closing price on February 10 was 80.50 yuan/ton, a slight decline from the previous day. The carbon market is currently in a policy window period, and the trading is mainly for rigid demand. It is recommended that enterprises with demand consider buying on dips [54][55]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - As of February 6, 2026, the polyethylene social sample warehouse inventory increased. The LLDPE social sample warehouse inventory increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday and pay attention to the post - holiday inventory destocking process [56][57][58]. 3.2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The main ports in the country are severely congested. The spot freight rate decline has slowed down in mid - and late February. Many shipping companies have announced price increases in March. It is recommended to view the market with a bullish oscillation mindset and wait and see for now [59][60].