节前需求回落，盘?表现疲软

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The demand for steel before the festival has declined, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market is weak. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, but there are disturbances in the iron ore shipping end, and the futures market shows signs of stabilization. As the winter storage is coming to an end, the support for coking coal and coke replenishment is gradually weakening, and the support for the futures market is limited. There are disturbances in the glass supply end, but the supply - demand surplus suppresses the futures price. In the short term, the futures market has downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downside space is limited [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Iron Element - The inventory pressure continues to increase, and there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side. The current market has average expectations for post - festival demand, and the futures market is under pressure. However, important meetings will be held after the festival, and there are still macro expectations. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure has been released. Pay attention to market sentiment changes. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] 2. Carbon Element - The subsequent growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal. Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines is still restricted, and the fundamentals of coking coal may continue to be healthy. The spot is expected to oscillate [2] 3. Alloys - In the manganese - silicon market, supply is stronger than demand, and the pressure on upstream inventory reduction is increasing. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese - silicon contract will oscillate around the cost. In the silicon - iron market, both supply and demand are weak, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. However, the trading activity in the market around the Spring Festival is low, and the upward driving force of the futures market is insufficient. It is expected that the silicon - iron futures price will run at a low level around the cost [3] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances in the glass supply, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price. The overall supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] 5. Individual Commodity Analysis Steel - Before the festival, the demand weakens, and the futures market is weak. The spot market trading is weak. The profitability of steel mills remains stable, the resumption of production in steel mills is slow, the molten iron output increases slightly, the electric furnaces begin to shut down one after another, and the output of five major steel products decreases slightly. The demand for building materials weakens seasonally, and the manufacturing demand is also in the off - season. The pressure of steel inventory accumulation is emerging, and the fundamentals are gradually accumulating contradictions. In the short term, the futures market has downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downside space is limited [7] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is under pressure to oscillate. The global shipping volume has decreased slightly. If there are no other sudden disturbances, the supply side is expected to remain relatively loose. The demand for molten iron is still stable, and steel mills are accelerating the replenishment before the Spring Festival. As the replenishment progresses, the support for the price may gradually weaken. The inventory pressure is still accumulating, and the market sentiment has weakened recently. The futures market is under pressure. After the festival, the Two Sessions will be held, so pay attention to market sentiment changes [7][8] Scrap Steel - The electric furnaces are gradually shutting down, and the arrival of scrap steel at steel mills has decreased. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [9] Coke - Before the festival, the sentiment is average, and the futures market is under pressure to operate. The supply of coke has increased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory in steel mills has increased. The supply - demand structure of coke is relatively healthy. After the spot price increase is implemented, it remains stable for the time being, and the futures market still follows the cost - end coking coal [10] Coking Coal - More coal mines are on holiday, and the futures and spot are under pressure to oscillate. Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines is still restricted, and the fundamentals of coking coal may continue to be healthy. The spot is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [11] Glass - Before the festival, the contradictions are limited, and the price oscillates. There are expectations of disturbances in the supply, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price [12] Soda Ash - The supply remains at a high level, and the price oscillates. The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand has a downward trend, and the dynamic surplus expectation is further intensified. The spot price may return to the price - cut channel, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [12][15] Manganese - Silicon - The inventory tends to increase, and there is still pressure above. The upstream inventory of manganese - silicon is high, but the cost price is firm, which makes it difficult for the futures price to continue to fall. The market trading is cold before the holiday, and the demand support for the price is weakening. The supply may increase after the festival, and the market inventory may further accumulate. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese - silicon contract will oscillate around the cost [16] Silicon - Iron - The trading atmosphere has become lighter, and the cost still provides support. The black - plate is under pressure in the off - season, and the market trading is rare before the holiday. The cost support of silicon - iron has become stronger. The demand support for the price is weakening, the production of silicon - iron remains at a low level, and the trading activity is low around the Spring Festival. It is expected that the silicon - iron futures price will run at a low level around the cost [18] 6. Index Information - On February 10, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities is 2383.17, up 0.35%; the commodity 20 index is 2722.24, up 0.43%; the industrial products index is 2281.60, up 0.12%. The steel industry chain index on February 10, 2026, is 1928.47, with a daily decline of 0.38%, a decline of 2.68% in the past 5 days, a decline of 4.76% in the past month, and a decline of 2.40% since the beginning of the year. The PPI commodity index is 1404.94, up 0.04% [104][105]