多重结构性?撑未改，?价?位消化波动

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Gold prices are digesting fluctuations at a high level, and the structural support remains solid. If the macro data does not significantly reverse the loose expectations, gold still has a basis for an upward trend [1]. - Silver: Silver is adjusting following the gold price, and the elasticity logic has not been damaged. It still has relative profit - making space under the premise of high - level gold prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Current Situation: After a significant fluctuation at the end of January, the gold price has been oscillating above $5000. The short - term pullback is mainly due to profit - taking and position re - balancing, without triggering systematic capital outflows [1]. - Logic: During the recent gold price correction, the ETF had only a small outflow of about 20 tons, which is more like a phased profit - taking. The demand from official sectors is still the core long - term support, as the People's Bank of China continued to increase its gold holdings in January. Although the short - term interest rate path needs to be observed based on inflation and employment data, the expectation of interest rate cuts in 2026 has not been falsified. The uncertainty of US foreign and security policies keeps the demand for safe - haven asset allocation high [1]. - Outlook: If the macro data does not significantly reverse the loose expectations, gold still has a basis for an upward trend [1]. Silver - Current Situation: After a rapid rise, silver has entered a high - level consolidation stage following the gold price. Short - term fluctuations mainly reflect the decline in risk appetite and profit - taking by long - positions [2]. - Logic: The follow - up attribute of silver to gold still exists, and its elasticity advantage has not been systematically weakened [2]. - Outlook: Silver still has relative profit - making space under the premise of high - level gold prices. If the macro - expectations tilt towards looseness and re - inflation, silver is expected to show high - beta characteristics again [2]. Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: Not provided in detail - Special Index: The commodity index is 2374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index is 2710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial products index is 2278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index is 1404.35, up 0.58% [43]. - Sector Index: The precious metals index on February 9, 2026, is 4200.39, with a daily increase of 3.78%, a 5 - day increase of 0.91%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 9.84% [44].