静待关键数据，铂钯持稳整理

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The market is waiting for the release of key economic data. Platinum and palladium prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. As of February 10, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 545.05 yuan/gram, with a decline of 0.50%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 438.15 yuan/gram, with a decline of 1.06% [1]. - For platinum, in the short - term, market is affected by sanctions on Russian platinum - group metals, geopolitical issues, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar credit is beneficial to the long - term price elasticity. It is recommended to consider the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium. The medium - to - long - term price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [2]. - For palladium, the supply side has uncertainties due to import investigations and potential sanctions. The spot shortage supports the price, while the demand side faces structural pressure. The medium - to - long - term price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation - The release of the US January non - farm payrolls report is postponed to this Wednesday due to a brief budget dispute in Congress. The January CPI data will be released this Friday. Before the release of these two key economic data, the market is in a wait - and - see mode [1]. 3.2 Platinum Analysis - Main Logic: In the short - term, factors such as the expected sanctions on Russian platinum - group metals in Europe, the repeated geopolitical issues between the US and Iran, and the fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, along with the approaching long holiday making funds more cautious, keep the market in an oscillating and consolidating stage. In the long - term, the US is in an interest - rate cut channel, and the long - term weakening trend of the US dollar credit is conducive to the release of price elasticity [2]. - Strategy: This week, the platinum - palladium ratio has fallen to a relatively low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium [2]. - Outlook: The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy and the macro - expectations are positive. The medium - to - long - term price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [2]. 3.3 Palladium Analysis - Main Logic: The supply side of palladium has continuous uncertainties, including the undetermined result of the US import investigation on Russian unforged palladium and the European consideration of new sanctions on Russian palladium. The spot shortage supports the price, while the demand side faces structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations provide a clear support for the price [3]. - Outlook: The spot shortage and the improving macro - environment lead to an expected medium - to - long - term price trend of oscillation and strengthening [3]. 3.4 Index Information - Commodity Index: The comprehensive index includes the commodity index (2374.89, +0.70%), the commodity 20 index (2710.51, +0.96%), the industrial products index (2278.80, +0.21%), and the PPI commodity index (1404.35, +0.58%) [49]. - Non - ferrous Metals Index: On February 9, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2681.11, with a daily increase of 1.12%, a 5 - day increase of 0.10%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.82%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.18% [50].