Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market's Spring Festival rally may continue, with attention on the performance of weighted indices and potential style shifts. The risk appetite has rebounded, but trading volume is moderate. The odds of weighted indices' supplementary gains before the Spring Festival may be better than those of small and medium-cap indices [9]. - The sentiment in the bond market has improved, and the short-term rebound trend may continue, but the odds have significantly decreased. It is advisable to wait for new odds from emotional trading [10]. - In the black market, steel and iron ore are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. For steel, the short-sold wide straddle position can be held; for iron ore, some of the medium-term short positions at high levels can be closed, and a light short position can be maintained [11]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [12]. - For iron alloys, manganese ore may still see a slight reduction in inventory this week, and the support for manganese ore remains relatively strong in the short term. Manganese silicon is expected to remain in a volatile range, and it is recommended to wait and see. For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to go long on a medium-term basis, and it is advisable to go long on the spread between the 05 contracts of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon when the spread is low [13]. - For soda ash and glass, it is recommended to wait and see for now. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new production capacity reaching full production. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines [14][15]. - In the non-ferrous and new materials sector, copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the fundamentals still support the price. For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to look for opportunities to buy on dips after the price correction. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon is expected to have a wide range of fluctuations, and cautious operation is recommended [17][18][19]. - In the agricultural products market, cotton is expected to be in a high-level consolidation state, and it is recommended to focus on short-term trading. Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate and rebound, and it is recommended to conduct short-term trading in the low-level range before the Spring Festival. For eggs, it is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see before the Spring Festival. Apples' high-quality supplies may continue to be strong, and the futures price may be strong. Corn prices are expected to be in a high-level consolidation state before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to opportunities after the festival. Red dates are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season. For live pigs, the spot price is lower than expected, and the near-month contracts may decline further [21][24][26][28][29][30][32]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are expected to have limited rebound space and will mainly fluctuate. Fuel oil prices will follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices. Polyolefins are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options or accumulate purchases at low levels. Synthetic rubber is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival and look for opportunities to go long after the festival. Methanol's fundamentals have slightly improved, but attention should be paid to the Middle East situation. Caustic soda is recommended to be considered from a long perspective. Asphalt prices will follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices. PVC is recommended to be cautious, as there is a risk of correction. The polyester industry chain is expected to follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices, and it is recommended to consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on PTA and short on EG. Liquefied petroleum gas prices will follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices, and it is recommended to be cautious. Pulp is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to position risk control. Logs are expected to have a pattern of strong supply and weak demand after the festival, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations. Urea futures are recommended to be treated with a volatile mindset [34][35][36][37][39][40][41][42][43][46][47][48][49][51]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and conduct regular treasury bond trading operations [6]. - Ray Dalio warns that the US is on the verge of the "fifth stage" of the imperial cycle, and gold should account for 5%-15% of the investment portfolio [6]. - The article in Qiushi Journal emphasizes the importance of cultivating and developing future industries [6]. - Alphabet's issuance of 100-year bonds received more than 7 times oversubscription, and its global debt issuance exceeded $30 billion [7]. - BYD has sued the US government over tariff issues [7]. - US President Trump may send another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East if the negotiation with Iran fails [7]. - Fed officials believe that the Fed's policy stance is appropriate, and there may be no need for further interest rate cuts if inflation falls and the labor market remains stable [8]. - US retail sales in December 2025 had zero growth month-on-month, weaker than expected [8]. Stock Index Futures - The Spring Festival rally in the A-share market may continue, with attention on the performance of weighted indices and potential style shifts. The risk appetite has rebounded, but trading volume is moderate. The odds of weighted indices' supplementary gains before the Spring Festival may be better than those of small and medium-cap indices [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - The sentiment in the bond market has improved, and the short-term rebound trend may continue, but the odds have significantly decreased. It is advisable to wait for new odds from emotional trading [10]. Black Market - Steel and iron ore are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. For steel, the short-sold wide straddle position can be held; for iron ore, some of the medium-term short positions at high levels can be closed, and a light short position can be maintained [11]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [12]. - For iron alloys, manganese ore may still see a slight reduction in inventory this week, and the support for manganese ore remains relatively strong in the short term. Manganese silicon is expected to remain in a volatile range, and it is recommended to wait and see. For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to go long on a medium-term basis, and it is advisable to go long on the spread between the 05 contracts of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon when the spread is low [13]. Soda Ash and Glass - It is recommended to wait and see for now. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new production capacity reaching full production. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines [14][15]. Non-ferrous and New Materials - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the fundamentals still support the price [17]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to look for opportunities to buy on dips after the price correction [18]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon is expected to have a wide range of fluctuations, and cautious operation is recommended [19]. Agricultural Products - Cotton is expected to be in a high-level consolidation state, and it is recommended to focus on short-term trading [21]. - Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate and rebound, and it is recommended to conduct short-term trading in the low-level range before the Spring Festival [24]. - For eggs, it is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see before the Spring Festival [26]. - Apples' high-quality supplies may continue to be strong, and the futures price may be strong [28]. - Corn prices are expected to be in a high-level consolidation state before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to opportunities after the festival [29]. - Red dates are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [30]. - For live pigs, the spot price is lower than expected, and the near-month contracts may decline further [32]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil prices are expected to have limited rebound space and will mainly fluctuate [34]. - Fuel oil prices will follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices [35]. - Polyolefins are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious [36]. - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options or accumulate purchases at low levels [37]. - Synthetic rubber is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival and look for opportunities to go long after the festival [39]. - Methanol's fundamentals have slightly improved, but attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [40]. - Caustic soda is recommended to be considered from a long perspective [41]. - Asphalt prices will follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices [42]. - PVC is recommended to be cautious, as there is a risk of correction [43]. - The polyester industry chain is expected to follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices, and it is recommended to consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on PTA and short on EG [46]. - Liquefied petroleum gas prices will follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices, and it is recommended to be cautious [47]. - Pulp is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to position risk control [48]. - Logs are expected to have a pattern of strong supply and weak demand after the festival, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations [49]. - Urea futures are recommended to be treated with a volatile mindset [51].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20260211
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2026-02-11 01:24