多资产周报：恒生科技遭遇“倒春寒”-20260211

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen below the 5400-point mark, indicating a significant pullback after previous gains in sectors like internet platforms and new energy vehicles[1] - The market is experiencing a "cold spring" with reduced trading volumes and profit-taking behavior observed across various sectors[1] External Factors - Recent U.S. economic data, including non-farm payrolls and service sector PPI, exceeded expectations, leading to a decrease in market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts[1] - Domestic institutions are showing a strong demand for profit-taking to manage uncertainties post-Spring Festival, while southbound capital is shifting from high-growth tech stocks to high-dividend assets like telecommunications and banks[1] Support Levels - Short-term adjustments are expected to find strong support in the 5100-5250 point range, which aligns with the 250-day moving average and the starting point of the 2025 market rally[1] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 3.80% year-on-year[5] - Retail sales have increased by 0.90% year-on-year[5] - Exports have risen by 6.60% year-on-year[5] - M2 money supply growth stands at 8.54%[5] Asset Performance - For the week of January 17 to January 24, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.63%, the Hang Seng Index by 0.36%, and the S&P 500 by 0.36%[2] - In commodities, WTI crude oil increased by 2.75%, while SHFE rebar fell by 0.66%[2] Inventory Levels - Current crude oil inventory is at 44,684 million tons, up by 44,935 million tons from the previous week[3] - Copper inventory has increased by 213,515 tons to 145,342 tons[3] Fund Behavior - The latest data shows a decrease in long positions in the U.S. dollar by 1,926 contracts, while short positions increased by 762 contracts[3] - Gold ETF holdings rose to 3,493 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include volatility in overseas markets and uncertainties in domestic policy execution[4]