金融期货早班车-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, in the medium to long term, the report maintains the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - term substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2] - For treasury bond futures, in the medium to long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: On February 10th, the four major A - share stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.02%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.37%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 0.91%. Market trading volume was 21,247 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,454 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, media (+4.27%), comprehensive (+2.15%), and household appliances (+1.11%) led the gains; real estate (-1.4%), food and beverage (-1.31%), and retail (-0.87%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM > IH > IF > IC, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,192/159/3,122 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of - 115, - 207, 28, and 294 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 331, - 108, +194, and +245 billion yuan respectively [2] - Basis and Annualized Yield: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 21.3, 15.64, 0.3, and - 6.19 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 2.81%, - 2.05%, - 0.07%, and 2.18% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 83%, 78%, 64%, and 76% respectively [2] - Trading Strategy: In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: On February 10th, treasury bond futures showed little volatility. Among the active contracts, TS and TF remained flat, T rose 0.01%, and TL rose 0.01% [2] - Cash Bonds: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250017.IB, with a yield change of +0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.001, and an IRR of 1.55%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 2500801.IB, with a yield change of +0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.014, and an IRR of 1.7%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of - 0.2bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.004, and an IRR of 1.52%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.006, and an IRR of 1.62% [2] - Funding Situation: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 3,114 billion yuan of currency and withdrew 1,055 billion yuan, with a net injection of 2,059 billion yuan [2] - Trading Strategy: In the medium to long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that except for infrastructure, the prosperity of various data exceeds the same period in previous years, and the infrastructure prosperity is similar to the same period in previous years [8]