粕类周报：粕类周报扰动因素增加市场波幅放大-20260211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the US soybean futures market showed a significant upward trend, mainly driven by the biodiesel policy and improved export prospects due to macro - changes. However, the US soybean export sales data decreased, and the growth rate of demand slowed down. The subsequent market impact mainly depends on the Argentine weather and the US monthly supply - demand report [5][13]. - The downward pressure on the domestic soybean meal futures increased due to improved subsequent supply and high previous crushing profits. The soybean meal inventory is expected to gradually decline, but the current price has already reflected the subsequent de - stocking, so the impact is relatively limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may be relatively large [6]. - The domestic rapeseed meal also showed a downward trend this week, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is mainly affected by soybean meal. As the subsequent soybean meal spot may gradually tighten, the demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be relatively good. The supply of rapeseed meal has gradually improved recently [6][22]. - The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, expanding the MRM spread for arbitrage, and selling a wide - straddle strategy for options [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - US soybean futures rose significantly this week, mainly influenced by the biodiesel policy and macro - changes. The fundamentals of the US soybean market remained stable, with a decrease in exports and stable crushing. The Brazilian price support still exists, and the Argentine new - crop supply decreased due to weather. The main influencing factor for the US soybean market may be the Argentine weather, and the export increment space is limited [5]. - The downward pressure on domestic soybean meal futures increased due to improved supply and high previous crushing profits. The subsequent soybean arrivals will gradually decrease, and the soybean meal inventory may decline. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may be relatively large. The domestic rapeseed meal also declined, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is mainly affected by soybean meal, and the subsequent supply has improved [6]. Strategy - Single - side: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy (views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [7] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. Macro Impact Increases, US Soybeans Rise Significantly - The US soybean futures rose significantly this week, driven by macro and biodiesel factors. The US Treasury's tax guidance on biodiesel and improved export prospects due to macro - changes led to the upward movement. The US soybean export sales data decreased, and the growth rate of demand slowed down. The subsequent market impact mainly comes from the limited short - term export growth and the upcoming US monthly supply - demand report [13]. 2. Brazilian Quotes Remain Firm, Argentine Weather Still Causes Disturbance - Brazilian quotes decreased this week but still remained at a high level. The old - crop pressure in Brazil is relatively limited, while the new - crop market pressure is obvious. The Brazilian export shipment speed has accelerated. The main influencing factor in the Argentine market is the weather, and the yield is subject to uncertainty [16]. 3. Futures Pressure Increases, Trading Remains Strong - The domestic soybean meal futures showed a downward trend this week due to the repair of crushing profits and reduced concerns about soybean supply shortages. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, especially the forward basis trading. The market is expected to see a slight de - stocking of soybean meal this week. The futures market is complex, and it is likely to show a more volatile trend [19]. 4. Supply Pressure Increases, Rapeseed Meal Declines Overall - The domestic rapeseed meal futures also declined this week, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread continued to widen. The decline was affected by both soybean meal and improved subsequent supply. The demand for rapeseed meal is average, and the supply has improved recently. The international rapeseed market provides some support to the price of rapeseed meal, but the overall supply is relatively loose [22] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Changes International Market - The data shows the US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit, as well as the Brazilian and Argentine monthly export and crushing data [26][29]. Foreign Premium - The data presents the FOB prices of the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as the CNF price of rapeseed [32]. Macro: Exchange Rate & International Shipping - The data includes the US dollar exchange rates against the Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso, and the shipping freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China [37][44]. Supply - The data shows the soybean and rapeseed import volumes and weekly crushing volumes [50]. Demand Side - The data presents the soybean meal and rapeseed meal pick - up volumes [53]. Inventory - The data shows the soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventories [57]