申万期货品种策略日报-天胶-20260211

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the natural rubber market showed a slight rebound. With domestic rubber-producing areas in a state of suspension and the northeastern part of Thailand gradually ceasing production while the southern part maintains normal output, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, continues to accumulate. In the short term, the supply-side flexibility has weakened, and raw rubber prices remain relatively firm. The demand side supports the stable operation of all-steel tire production. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, it is expected that natural rubber prices will undergo a period of oscillatory adjustment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price Changes: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16,335, 13,230, and 12,900 respectively, with price increases of 90, 80, and 75, and corresponding increases of 0.55%, 0.61%, and 0.58% compared to the day before. The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR also increased by 10, 15, and 5 respectively [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 177,554, 41,282, and 82,067 respectively. The open interests were 12,900, 48,541, and -2,893 respectively, with changes of 75, -128, and 10 [2] - Basis: The current basis values of RU, mixed - RU, and smoked sheet - RU are -185, -1,135, and 2,165 respectively, showing certain changes compared to the previous values [2] Spot Market - Domestic Spot Prices: The current prices of whole milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming are 16,050, 16,150, and 15,950 respectively, with increases of 0.31%. The prices of smoked sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai are 18,500, with an increase of 0.54%. The prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan are 15,200 and 16,050 respectively, with increases of 0.86% and 0.63% [2] - Downstream Product Prices: The current prices of Thai smoked sheet, Thai cup lump, and Thai latex are 62.69, 53.56, and 60.5 respectively, with increases of 1.00%, 0.00%, and 0.83% [2]