2026年02月11日申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯：申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Despite short - term disturbances, the long - term bullish logic remains intact, though there are risks associated with the nomination process and external market corrections [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - Platinum Futures: For pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 537.50, 532.00, and 526.00 respectively, with price changes of - 2.70, - 0.05, and - 0.90, and price change rates of - 0.50%, - 0.01%, and - 0.17% respectively. The trading volumes are 5828, 161, and 120, and the open interests are all 12175 [1]. - Palladium Futures: For pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 429.05, 430.00, and 424.15 respectively, with price changes of - 4.60, 0.60, and - 3.90, and price change rates of - 1.06%, 0.14%, and - 0.91% respectively. The trading volumes are 3046, 31, and 15, and the open interests are all 4146 [1]. Spot Market - Platinum Spot: The previous closing price of Shanghai platinum was 549.47 yuan/gram, with a price increase of 5.48 yuan/gram and a price change rate of 0.010%. The previous closing price of London platinum was 2120.00 US dollars/ounce, with a price increase of 25.00 US dollars/ounce and a price change rate of 0.012%. The previous closing prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum were 836.00 yuan/gram and 960.00 yuan/gram respectively, with price changes of 31.00 yuan/gram and 0.00 yuan/gram, and price change rates of 0.039% and 0.000% respectively [1]. - Palladium Spot: The previous closing price of Chinese palladium was 426.00 yuan/gram, with a price increase of 6.00 yuan/gram and a price change rate of 0.014%. The previous closing price of Russian palladium was 4234.85 rubles/gram, with a price increase of 8.26 rubles/gram and a price change rate of 0.002% [1]. Inventory - Platinum Inventory: The current NYMEX inventory is 583,369.21 ounces, a decrease of 63071.6 ounces compared to the previous value. The current NYMEX registered warehouse receipts are 325,763.41 ounces, a decrease of 874.5 ounces compared to the previous value. The current trading volume on the Gold Exchange is 16.5044 million yuan, a decrease of 35.389 million yuan compared to the previous value, and the trading volume is 30.00 kilograms, a decrease of 66.0 kilograms compared to the previous value [1]. - Palladium Inventory: The current NYMEX inventory is 190,873.50 ounces, with no change compared to the previous value. The current NYMEX registered warehouse receipts are 148,317.64 ounces, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. Related Derivatives - Precious Metal Futures: For Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices are 1121.22, 1123.96, and 1126.54 respectively, with price decreases of 4.72, 4.82, and 4.70 compared to the previous closing prices. For Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices are 20284.00, 19711.00, and 19365.00 respectively, with price decreases of 589, 464, and 481 compared to the previous closing prices [1]. Macroeconomic News - Fed Policy: The Fed maintains the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts, which is in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut, consistent with Trump - nominated director Milan [2]. - Fed Chair Nomination: Trump nominates former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, but the nomination needs Senate approval. Some senators oppose the nomination [2]. - China's Economic Data: In January 2026, China's manufacturing market demand tightened, but production remained in an expansionary state, and the industrial structure continued to optimize. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were 50.1% and 52% respectively, showing stable and positive development [2]. - Payment System Meeting: The People's Bank of China held a payment and settlement work meeting in 2026, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening supervision, and improving service quality [3]. Market Analysis and Strategy - Short - term Disturbances: As of February 2, 2026, NYMEX platinum and palladium prices have corrected by 21.5% and 16.9% respectively since the end of January. The main disturbance is Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh's policy stance is dovish but less than expected, and the short - term strengthening of the US dollar after the nomination announcement has dragged down platinum and palladium prices. There are uncertainties in the nomination process and subsequent policy independence, leading to continued short - term monetary policy expectation games [4]. - Long - term Support: The judicial investigation of Powell has shaken the US dollar's credit, and the global central bank gold - buying trend continues. The de - dollarization trend highlights the reserve value of platinum and palladium. Geopolitical risks in Greenland provide periodic support. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in June remains unchanged, and the long - term loose environment provides support. On the industrial side, there is a clear supply - demand gap for platinum, and the supply of palladium is rigid, with strong demand support [4].