2026年2月11日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银-20260211

Report Overview - The report is the Shenwan Futures Variety Strategy Daily Report - Gold and Silver on February 11, 2026, provided by the Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute [1][2] 1. Market Data Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were 1123.96 and 1121.22 respectively, down 0.43% and 0.42% from the previous day. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 19711 and 20284 respectively, down 2.30% and 2.82% [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were 51266 and 218097 respectively, and the open interests were 90218 and 156910 respectively. The trading volumes of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 305042 and 611557 respectively, and the open interests were 132072 and 216295 respectively [2] - Spot Premium: The spot premiums of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were -6.56 and -3.82 respectively, and those of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were -443 and -1016 respectively [2] Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T+D was 1117.40, down 0.13% from the previous day. The closing price of London Gold was 5027.66, down 0.62%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T+D was 19268, down 1.20%. The closing price of London Silver was 80.75, down 3.14% [2] Inventory - Domestic and Overseas: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver were 105,072 kg and 323,368 kg respectively, with an increase of 1020 kg and 4822 kg. The inventories of COMEX gold and silver were 35,229,811 and 386,273,025 troy ounces respectively, with a decrease of 64302 and 4192982 troy ounces [2] Related Derivatives and Indicators - ETF and CFTC Data: The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF were 1079 tons and 16216 tons respectively, with a change of 0 and an increase of 25 tons. The net positions of CFTC speculators in gold and silver were 165,604 and 25,877 respectively, with a decrease of 39792 and an increase of 2174 [2] - Related Indexes: The US dollar index was 96.86 (unchanged), the S&P 500 index was 6941.81 (down 23.01), the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.16% (down 0.06%), Brent crude oil was 69.10 (down 0.04), and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9129 (down 0.0155) [2] 2. Macro News - US Retail Sales: US retail sales in December were unexpectedly stagnant, indicating more cautious consumer spending at the end of the year. After a 0.6% increase in November, unadjusted retail sales were basically flat. 8 out of 13 retail categories declined, while spending at building material stores and sports goods retailers increased [3] - Trump's Statements: Trump said that the US interest rate should be 2 percentage points lower than the current level and that Iran will not have nuclear weapons or missiles [3] - Fed Officials' Views: Fed's Logan is "cautiously optimistic" about the current policy rate achieving the inflation target while maintaining employment stability. However, she is more worried about persistent high inflation. Cleveland Fed President Harker believes there is no urgent need to adjust the interest rate policy this year and that the Fed may keep the federal funds rate unchanged for a long time. Inflation is still "too high" [4][5] - Fed Rate - Cut Probability: According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in March is 19.6%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 80.4%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by April is 36%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 58.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 5.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June is 49.3% [5] 3. Comments and Strategies - Market Outlook: Precious metals are in a volatile consolidation. The market is waiting for US employment and inflation data this week, which may affect the subsequent rate - cut expectations. Previously, precious metals experienced a sharp shock. Since January, precious metals have risen rapidly, and the volatility is at a high level. The nomination of Warsh triggered a rise in the US dollar index, leading to a large amount of profit - taking [6] - Long - term View: In the long term, factors such as de - dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases remain unchanged. The Chinese central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 15th consecutive month. After the market is fully adjusted and new positive factors accumulate, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel [6] - Investment Advice: Due to the higher volatility of silver and the relatively low gold - silver ratio, investors are advised to wait and see [6]