申万期货品种策略日报-油脂油料-20260211

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Brazilian soybean and soybean meal exports in February are expected to increase, with soybean exports forecasted at 11.71 million tons and soybean meal exports at 1.93 million tons [3] - The US 2025/2026 soybean production, ending stocks, and yield forecasts remain unchanged from the January report [3] - Protein meal prices face pressure due to ongoing Brazilian soybean harvest and high domestic inventory and sufficient supply expectations [3] - Malaysian palm oil is in a de - stocking cycle, but crude oil price fluctuations and market sentiment limit palm oil price increases, and short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8098, 8940, and 9096 respectively, with changes of - 16, - 74, and - 41, and percentage changes of - 0.20%, - 0.82%, and - 3.15% [2] - Spreads and Ratios: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are 40, 112, and 68 respectively, and the current values of ratios such as M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 are - 48, 68, and 559 respectively [2] International Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4100 ringgit/ton, 1123 cents/bushel, 57.25 cents/pound, and 301 dollars/ton respectively, with percentage changes of 0.44%, 1.22%, 0.90%, and 1.14% [2] Domestic Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8490 and 8510 respectively, with a 0.00% change; the current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 9050, with a - 0.11% change [2] - Basis and Spreads: The current spot basis for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 388, and the current spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 460 [2] Import and Crushing Profit - Current and Previous Values: The current import and crushing profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 360, and the previous value was - 383; for near - month US Gulf soybeans, the current value is - 409, and the previous value was - 354 [2] Warehouse Receipts - Current and Previous Values: The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 26,305, 450, and 625 respectively, and the previous values were the same [2]