Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes the harvest in February and the negative impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see [4]. - For cotton, in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuate widely at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, due to the reduction of planting area and positive macro expectations, cotton prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices before the Spring Festival [8]. - For protein meal, the expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans drives the rise of US soybean prices. In the short - term, domestic protein meal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [12]. - For oils, in the medium - term, oil prices are bullish as the growth of oil consumption exceeds the production growth under the promotion of biodiesel policies. In the short - term, oil prices fluctuate at high levels, and it is advisable to wait for a correction to buy [16]. - For eggs, during the inventory accumulation period around the Spring Festival, the spot price is likely to fall. The near - month contract may need to squeeze out the premium, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. The long - term logic of capacity reduction has uncertainties, and attention should be paid to the pressure after the price rises [19]. - For pigs, the short - term outlook is pessimistic due to large supply and inventory accumulation. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended. In the long - term, pay attention to the downside support after the price decline [22]. Summary by Commodity Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price showed a strong - side oscillation. The closing price of the May contract was 5,278 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2]. - From the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to the first half of January, the cumulative sugar production in the central - south region of Brazil was 40.23 million tons, an increase of 345,000 tons year - on - year. As of the week of February 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 49, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5644 million tons [3]. - StoneX expects a surplus of 2.9 million tons in the global sugar market in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8% [3]. - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, the cumulative import of sugar was 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons [3]. Strategy - Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the harvest in February. After the negative impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,655 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton or 0.51% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,988 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton [6]. - As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week [6]. - From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons. The export to China was 8,800 tons, and the cumulative export was 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons [6][7]. - The USDA's January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year [7]. Strategy - In the short - term, affected by the large fluctuations in the commodity market, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuate widely at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, due to the reduction of planting area and positive macro expectations, cotton prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices before the Spring Festival [8]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, the protein meal futures price oscillated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2,734 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2,244 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous trading day [10]. - Trump said that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans from 12 million tons to 20 million tons this season. StoneX estimates that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high of 181 million tons [11]. - As of January 31, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 99.6%, and the harvesting rate was 11.4%. From January 30 to February 6, the domestic sample soybean arrival volume was 1.56 million tons, and the soybean port inventory was 5.91 million tons [11]. Strategy - The expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans drives the rise of US soybean prices. In the short - term, domestic protein meal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [12]. Oils Market Information - On Tuesday, the oil futures price oscillated. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8,098 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8,940 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton or 0.82% from the previous trading day [14]. - It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, exports were 1.42 million tons, and inventory was 2.89 million tons. The US Treasury Department released new guidance on biofuel tax credits [14][15]. - From January 30 to February 6, the domestic sample data showed that the inventory of the three major oils increased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.92 million tons [15]. Strategy - In the medium - term, oil prices are bullish as the growth of oil consumption exceeds the production growth under the promotion of biodiesel policies. In the short - term, oil prices fluctuate at high levels, and it is advisable to wait for a correction to buy [16]. Eggs Market Information - Most of the national egg prices were stable, and a few declined. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.05 yuan to 3.33 yuan/jin. As the Spring Festival approaches, market demand will gradually weaken, and trading volume will gradually shrink [18]. Strategy - During the inventory accumulation period around the Spring Festival, the spot price is likely to fall. The near - month contract may need to squeeze out the premium, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. The long - term logic of capacity reduction has uncertainties, and attention should be paid to the pressure after the price rises [19]. Pigs Market Information - The domestic pig price continued to decline. The average price in Henan dropped 0.27 yuan to 11.82 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.09 yuan to 10.8 yuan/kg. The pig market supply remains loose, and the bearish sentiment persists [21]. Strategy - The short - term outlook is pessimistic due to large supply and inventory accumulation. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended. In the long - term, pay attention to the downside support after the price decline [22].
2026-02-11：五矿期货农产品早报-20260211
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-02-11 01:34