国新国证期货早报-20260211

Report Summary on February 11, 2026 Overall Market Performance - On February 10, A-share market's three major indices fluctuated. Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% to 4128.37, Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.02% to 14210.63, and ChiNext Index fell 0.37% to 3320.54. The total trading volume of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.1249 trillion yuan, a decrease of 145.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and closed at 4724.30, up 5.24 [2]. Commodity Futures Coal - Coke and Coking Coal - On February 10, the coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1670.5, down 28.4. The coking coal weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1129.8 yuan, down 19.3 [2][3]. - For coke, port spot prices were stable. Supply was normal, but demand was average, with poor sales and increasing inventory pressure. For coking coal, prices in some areas decreased. Supply tightened as private mines went on holiday, and demand weakened as steel mills' profits were poor and winter - storage replenishment was mostly finished [4]. Sugar - Due to the dollar index hitting a one - week low, the US sugar rose on Monday. Supported by the US sugar's rebound and higher spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose on Tuesday and had a narrow - range night session [4]. Rubber - As the Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas entered the off - season, supply decreased, and with rising crude oil prices, spot prices increased. The Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly on Tuesday and continued to rise at night. However, with expected pre - holiday arrivals and completed downstream stocking, Qingdao port's inventory increased. As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory in Qingdao was 6.068 million tons, up 2.55% [4][5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on February 10, CBOT soybean futures rose due to optimistic export demand and strong soybean oil futures. The USDA raised Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 180 million tons. Domestically, on February 10, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2734 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. Pre - holiday soybean crushing was high, and inventory rose. By the end of the 6th week of 2026, domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.0626 million tons, up 7.98%. It's suggested to track South American weather and soybean arrivals [5]. Live Hogs - On February 10, the main live hog contract LH2605 closed at 11470 yuan/ton, down 0.82%. Supply was abundant as pre - holiday selling increased, and there was an oversupply of suitable - weight pigs. Demand was in the seasonal peak, but in the medium - term, the supply - demand imbalance would persist. It's important to monitor sow inventory and large - scale pig farm selling rhythms [5]. Palm Oil - On February 10, palm oil futures continued to decline. The main contract P2605 closed at 8940, down 0.82%. In January, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 11.44%, inventory decreased by 7.72%, production decreased by 13.78%, and imports decreased by 2.93% [5]. Copper - The main copper contract had an intraday high - and - low fluctuation. Pre - holiday liquidity decreased. Spot prices were firm, and downstream pre - holiday stocking improved. Externally, a stronger dollar due to reduced Fed rate - cut expectations pressured the market, while domestic purchase - reserve expectations provided support [5]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14680 yuan/ton, with an inventory increase of 106 lots. Textile enterprises mainly made rigid purchases, and Indian cotton trading was active due to tariff agreements [5][6]. Iron Ore - On February 10, the main iron ore contract 2605 closed flat at 761.5 yuan. Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and domestic arrivals decreased, port inventory increased, and steel mills' replenishment was mostly finished. Short - term prices were expected to fluctuate [6]. Asphalt - On February 10, the main asphalt contract 2603 closed flat at 3343 yuan. Supply was low, refinery inventory pressure was small, but terminal demand was shrinking, and pre - holiday trading was light. Short - term prices would fluctuate [6]. Logs - The main log contract 2603 opened at 770.5 on Tuesday, with a low of 765, a high of 778.5, and closed at 773.5, with 754 lots of position reduction. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Port coniferous log inventory decreased for three weeks. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and inventory changes [6][7]. Steel - On February 10, rb2605 was at 3052 yuan/ton and hc2605 was at 3220 yuan/ton. The domestic steel market was in holiday mode, downstream demand stopped, and pre - holiday prices were stable. Most construction enterprises would resume work after the Lantern Festival [7]. Alumina - On February 10, ao2605 was at 2835 yuan/ton. Demand was supported by high electrolytic aluminum operating rates but with a slower purchase rhythm. Supply was abundant, and inventory continued to increase. There was support near the cost line [7]. Aluminum - On February 10, al2603 was at 23515 yuan/ton. Before the Spring Festival, the market atmosphere cooled. Supply was stable, ingot production increased, and social inventory accumulated. Demand continued to contract, and the impact on prices was limited [7].