首席点评：非农数据临阵预警

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a cautious view on various commodities, with some marked as "cautiously bearish" and others as "cautiously bullish". For example, crude oil, methanol, etc., are marked as "cautiously bearish", while gold, silver, etc., are marked as "cautiously bullish" [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple aspects including economic data, geopolitical events, and market trends. It mentions that the US is at a critical stage of its economic cycle, and the global market is affected by various factors such as US employment data, geopolitical negotiations, and supply - demand changes in different industries [1][5]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends. For example, precious metals are expected to return to an upward trend in the long - term, while the short - term is affected by data announcements; the crude oil market is influenced by geopolitical negotiations and supply changes [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Chief Comment - US API crude oil inventory increased by 13.4 million barrels last week. US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 14% week - on - week but increased by 3% year - on - year. As of February 5, 2026, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume was 1,136,099 tons. The total US soybean export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season reached 23,136,299 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34.4%. The US non - farm employment data to be released this Wednesday is expected to show an increase of 69,000 in non - farm employment in January, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%. Futures markets mostly rose at night, with propylene up over 2% and glass down over 1% [1]. 2. Key Varieties Precious Metals - Precious metals are in a consolidation phase. The market is waiting for US employment and inflation data, which may affect subsequent interest rate cut expectations. After a sharp rise in January, precious metals had a significant shock. In the long - term, factors such as de - dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases still support the upward trend of gold. The central bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months. It is recommended to wait and see for silver due to its high volatility and relatively low gold - silver ratio [2]. Crude Oil - SC crude oil rose 0.21% at night. Iran and the US held indirect negotiations in Muscat. The negotiation started well, and both sides agreed to continue. Kazakhstan's oil export volume in February may drop by up to 35% due to the slow recovery of the Tengiz oil field [3]. Stock Index - US stock indexes were mixed. The stock index rose slightly the previous trading day, with the media sector leading the rise and the real estate sector leading the fall. The market turnover was 2.12 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 523 million yuan on February 9. In February, the market is expected to continue the phased upward trend, but the potential impact of overseas market fluctuations during the Spring Festival should be noted [3]. 3. Main News of the Day International News - Ray Dalio warned that the US is at the "fifth stage" of the imperial cycle, on the verge of order collapse and conflict. He suggested that gold should account for 5% - 15% of the investment portfolio [5]. Domestic News - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and carry out regular treasury bond trading operations [6]. Industry News - An article in Qiushi emphasized the importance of cultivating future industries for high - quality development [7]. 4. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the daily returns of various overseas markets on February 9 and 10, including the S&P 500, European STOXX50, etc. Some indexes and commodities rose, while others fell [8]. 5. Morning Comments on Main Varieties Financial - Stock Index: The stock index is expected to continue the phased upward trend in February, but the potential impact of overseas market fluctuations during the Spring Festival should be noted [9]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The market expects the new Fed chairman's policy to be a combination of interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction. The bond futures price is expected to stabilize, and cautious operation is recommended before the Spring Festival [10][11]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: SC crude oil rose 0.21% at night. Iran - US negotiations started well, and Kazakhstan's oil export volume may decline [12]. - Methanol: Methanol fell 0.09% at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the methanol inventory in coastal areas decreased [13]. - Natural Rubber: Natural rubber rebounded slightly. The domestic production area is in the off - season, and the supply elasticity is weak. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival [14]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro factors. It is recommended to control positions before the Spring Festival [15]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass futures declined, and soda ash futures also fell. The glass supply - demand situation is gradually improving, and the supply of soda ash is slightly shrinking. It is recommended to control positions before the Spring Festival [16]. - Precious Metals: Precious metals are in a consolidation phase. They are affected by US data announcements. In the long - term, gold is expected to rise, and it is recommended to wait and see for silver [17]. - Copper: Copper prices rose 0.17% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the copper price may enter an adjustment phase [18]. - Zinc: Zinc prices rose 0.08% at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [19]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum market was flat at night. The aluminum production rate is high, but the downstream demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. In the long - term, low inventory and stable demand support the price [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: The production and production plan of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to trading opportunities after volatility reduction [21]. Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices of coking coal and coke rebounded at night. The supply of coking coal decreased slightly, and the demand growth is limited. After the Spring Festival, factors such as iron - making production, mine operation, and import policies should be noted [22]. - Steel: Steel production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The construction downstream demand is weakening. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [23]. - Iron Ore: The global iron ore shipment increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise. The steel mill's demand for iron ore is expected to be based on on - demand replenishment, and the iron ore price is expected to be weak and volatile [24]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal rose at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing, and the US soybean price is under pressure. The domestic soybean meal price is also affected by high inventory and sufficient supply expectations [25]. - Oils and Fats: Oils and fats were weak at night. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia decreased, and the production decreased. The palm oil price is supported by inventory reduction but restricted by crude oil prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [26][27]. - Sugar: The sugar price continued to fluctuate. The global sugar supply is in an oversupply situation, and the domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [28]. - Cotton: The cotton price maintained a range - bound trend. The textile factory's restocking is coming to an end, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of direct subsidy policies [29]. - Hogs: The hog futures market continued to be weak. The supply in the spot market exceeds demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term [30]. Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC index fell 4.57%. The spot freight rate in February is relatively stable, and the market is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the impact of export demand and price increase letters should be noted [31].