Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current black series is in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it will mainly operate in a weak range - bound oscillation, and the trend opportunity is not clear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery of plate demand, and possible marginal adjustments to "dual - carbon" policies [2]. - For iron ore, it is expected to oscillate weakly before the festival. Attention should be paid to overseas ore shipments and the domestic hot - metal production rhythm [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the long - term, the bullish trend of commodities may continue, but short - term market sentiment is affected by the adjustment of precious metals. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - supply factors. Attention should be paid to possible changes in manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, in the long - term, the bullish trend of commodities may continue, but in the short term, the market is affected by precious metals. The short - term upward catalytic force is not strong, and there may be a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival. It is expected to rise smoothly from June to October [15][16]. - For industrial silicon, it shows a pattern of weak supply and demand in February. It is expected to be weakly oscillating before the festival, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [19][20]. - For polysilicon, the supply is decreasing, the demand is stable, and the high inventory is expected to be slightly reduced. The futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to post - festival demand and spot prices [22]. - For glass, it is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [25]. - For soda ash, it is expected to continue to operate weakly, with the reference range of the main contract being 1140 - 1200 yuan/ton [27]. Summary by Directory Steel Products 1. Rebar - Market Information: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3052 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.39%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 15710 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 2.0655 million lots, an increase of 60036 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3150 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3220 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Near the Spring Festival, both the supply and demand of rebar have shown obvious seasonal declines, and the inventory has entered the accumulation stage, but the overall inventory accumulation range is still controllable [2]. 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Information: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3220 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (- 0.58%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 253200 tons, an increase of 9424 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.5428 million lots, an increase of 43035 lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3240 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively stable, the output has decreased slightly, the inventory has accumulated slightly, and the supply - demand structure is generally neutral [2]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 761.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.00% (+ 0.00). The position changed by + 556 lots to 513900 lots. The weighted position was 878500 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.47% [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The overseas iron ore shipments have decreased significantly. The near - end arrivals have decreased. The daily hot - metal output is lower than expected, and the port inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. It is expected to oscillate weakly before the festival, and attention should be paid to overseas ore shipments and the domestic hot - metal production rhythm [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: On February 10, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed up 0.10% at 5818 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 92 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 0.25% at 5580 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 120 yuan/ton [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: In the long - term, the bullish trend of commodities may continue, but short - term market sentiment is affected by the adjustment of precious metals. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - supply factors. Attention should be paid to possible changes in manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Information: On February 10, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 2.445% at 1119.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1550.6 yuan/ton, with a basis of 241 yuan/ton; the medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1270 yuan/ton, with a basis of 134 yuan/ton; the Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1227 yuan/ton, with a basis of 83 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 2.26% at 1665.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, with a basis of 60.5 yuan/ton; the quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 101 yuan/ton [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: In the long - term, the bullish trend of commodities may continue, but in the short term, the market is affected by precious metals. The short - term upward catalytic force is not strong, and there may be a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival. It is expected to rise smoothly from June to October [15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 1. Industrial Silicon - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8375 yuan/ton, down 0.89% (- 75). The weighted contract position increased by 12176 lots to 418432 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - passed industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 825 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 475 yuan/ton [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It shows a pattern of weak supply and demand in February. It is expected to be weakly oscillating before the festival, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [19][20]. 2. Polysilicon - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 48950 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (- 420). The weighted contract position decreased by 183 lots to 65828 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, the N - type dense material was 52.75 yuan/kg, and the N - type re - feeding material was 53.65 yuan/kg, all with no change. The basis was 4700 yuan/ton [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply is decreasing, the demand is stable, and the high inventory is expected to be slightly reduced. The futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to post - festival demand and spot prices [22]. Glass and Soda Ash 1. Glass - Market Information: On Tuesday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1070 yuan/ton, down 0.74% (- 8). The North China large - plate price was 1030 yuan, and the Central China price was 1110 yuan, both with no change. On February 5, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.064 million boxes, an increase of 0.5 million boxes (+ 0.95%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20888 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 612 short positions [24]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [25]. 2. Soda Ash - Market Information: On Tuesday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1171 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (- 10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1121 yuan, a decrease of 9 yuan. On February 5, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5811 million tons, an increase of 36900 tons (+ 0.95%), including 746100 tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 30000 tons, and 835000 tons of light soda ash, an increase of 6900 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased 10237 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 28617 short positions [26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is expected to continue to operate weakly, with the reference range of the main contract being 1140 - 1200 yuan/ton [27].
黑色建材日报-20260211
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-02-11 01:45