期货市场交易指引2026年02月11日-20260211

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trading suggestions for various futures products, including "long - term bullish and buy on dips", "range trading", "temporary wait - and - see", etc. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple futures products in different sectors, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - spinning industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading strategies based on factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and market sentiment for each product. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggest buying on dips. Overseas rebound and reduced liquidity shock disturbances may lead to a slightly bullish and volatile trend [1][6]. - Treasury Bonds: Expected to trade in a range. Despite institutional demand for holding bonds during the holiday, factors like resistance at the 60 - day moving average, upcoming important meetings, and bond supply uncertainties contribute to the range - bound movement [6]. Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Short - term trading is recommended. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations, with price increases driven by factors like price adjustments by Shenhua and local inventory - building demand, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited [7][8]. - Rebar: Range trading. The price is currently trading in a range, with low static valuation and weakening cost support. It is recommended to trade with light positions before the holiday [8]. - Glass: Suggest buying on dips. Although there are still upward pressure and industry rumors, the futures price has dropped to a relatively low level again, and it is expected to be slightly bullish in the future [9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: High - level range - bound. General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are recommended to increase the hedging coverage rate. The copper market is affected by macro factors, with concerns about AI bubbles and geopolitical issues. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the price is expected to stabilize in a range [11]. - Aluminum: High - level range - bound. It is recommended to strengthen observation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand is weakening. The overall market sentiment is still bullish on non - ferrous metals, and it is advisable to reduce positions before the holiday [13]. - Nickel: Range - bound. It is recommended to wait and see. The reduction of Indonesia's nickel ore quota has boosted the price, but the current market has fully priced in this factor, and the fundamental situation is weak [15]. - Tin: Range trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption maintains rigid demand. It is expected to continue to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [16][17]. - Gold and Silver: Range trading. Affected by factors such as Trump's nomination of the new Fed chairman and changes in the US economic data, the medium - term price center of both has shifted upwards, but the short - term is in an adjustment state [17][18]. - Lithium Carbonate: Range - bound. The supply and demand situation is complex, with issues such as the suspension of mines in Yichun and the increase in South American lithium salt imports. It is expected to continue to trade in a range [18]. Energy Chemicals - PVC: Low - level wide - range trading. The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but the valuation is low. Attention should be paid to export policies and cost fluctuations [20]. - Caustic Soda: Low - level range - bound. Temporarily wait and see. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. Attention should be paid to supply - side maintenance and production cuts [20]. - Styrene: Range trading. There is a rebound supported by factors such as export increase and device maintenance, but the valuation is high, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing the rise [22]. - Rubber: Range trading. Before the holiday, the market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile [22]. - Urea: Range trading. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is rising, and the inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year. The price is expected to trade in a range [23]. - Methanol: Range trading. The domestic supply is decreasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak. The price in some regions is relatively strong due to geopolitical and port arrival factors [25]. - Polyolefins: Weakly bearish and volatile. The downstream demand is weakening during the pre - holiday off - season, the supply is still high, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short on rallies [26]. - Soda Ash: Temporarily wait and see. The supply is in surplus, the cost is rising, and the market expectation is poor. It is advisable to leave the market and observe for the time being [27]. Cotton - Spinning Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Volatile adjustment. The global cotton supply - demand situation is improving, but the internal - external price difference is suppressing the domestic market. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [28]. - Apples: Range - bound. The overall market in the producing areas is stable, and the trading volume of some varieties is average [28]. - Jujubes: Range - bound. The purchase price in the producing areas is based on quality, and the market is stable [29]. Agricultural Livestock - Pigs: Bottom - building. Partially take profits on short positions before the Spring Festival and adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the long - term price trend depends on factors such as capacity reduction [29]. - Eggs: Rebound from a low level. Before the holiday, the market is volatile, and it is recommended to be cautious when shorting. Pay attention to the supply situation in the medium - to long - term [31]. - Corn: Limited upside. In the short term, be cautious when chasing the rise, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. The medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [32][33]. - Soybean Meal: Low - level range - bound. For the M2605 contract, pay attention to the support at 2700 yuan/ton, and short on rebounds. The market is affected by factors such as South American production and domestic demand [33]. - Oils and Fats: High - level range - bound. Suggest buying on dips and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. The market situation of different oils is different, with soybean oil relatively strong and palm oil and rapeseed oil relatively weak [34][39].