PP：C3原料表现偏强，估值修复有限

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - C3 raw materials for PP are relatively strong, but the valuation repair is limited. The overall fundamentals at the end of the year provide limited support, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH units under deep losses [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of PP2605 yesterday was 6688, with a daily increase of 0.87%, trading volume of 298,300, and a change in open interest of -1,773 [1] - Basis and Spread Changes: The basis of the 05 contract yesterday was -148 (compared to -150 the day before), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was -19 (compared to -31 the day before) [1] - Important Spot Prices: In North China, it was 6,510 yuan/ton (compared to 6,520 the day before); in East China, it was 6,540 yuan/ton (compared to 6,480 the day before); in South China, it remained at 6,690 yuan/ton [1] Spot News - The market is volatile. Upstream pre - sale pressure is not large, downstream is gradually on holiday, trading atmosphere is average, basis is weakly stable, and warehouse receipts are at a high level. The PP US dollar market price has increased, but overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for quoting to China is low. Exports are affected by the strengthening exchange rate and the rising domestic market, and downstream continues to purchase on a rigid - demand basis, with little improvement in trading [1] Market Condition Analysis - Cost Side: Crude oil and propane prices are volatile. There is a valuation differentiation within olefins, and the valuation of PE in terms of internal, external, and upstream profit margins is higher than that of PP [2] - Supply Side: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies [2] - Demand Side: Downstream new orders follow up on a rigid - demand basis. At the end of the year, the overall fundamental support is limited. PDH profit on the cost side remains at a low level. Multiple PDH units in South China have given maintenance expectations, and some are inquiring about propane raw materials for the end of March. Under deep PDH losses, attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH units [2] Trend Intensity - PP trend intensity is 0 [3]