对二甲苯：单边震荡市，月差偏弱PTA：区间震荡市MEG：区间操作

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral oscillating market, weakening monthly spread [2] - PTA: Range - bound oscillating market [2] - MEG: Range - bound operation [2] 2. Core Views - PX: Before the festival, it's a range - bound oscillating market with support below, conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage. In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain gradually weakens. PX operating rate rises, PXN processing fee is continuously compressed, and try shorting PTA processing fee when it is above 450 [11] - PTA: The downward space may be limited, monthly spread is bearish. Try shorting PTA processing fee when it is above 450. Pay attention to the 5100 yuan/ton support for the unilateral position [11] - MEG: Inventory continues to rise, supply pressure is still high. Conduct basis and monthly spread reverse arbitrage operations. The monthly spread and basis trends remain weak [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Yesterday's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF and SC were 7308, 5230, 3733, 6626 and 476.1 respectively. Their price changes were 18, 38, - 6, 20 and 11.9, and the price change rates were 0.25%, 0.73%, - 0.16%, 0.30% and 2.56% respectively [4] - For the monthly spreads, the closing prices of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4 and SC2 - 3 yesterday were 8, 28, - 108, - 74 and - 2.7, with price changes of - 8, 20, 2, 6 and - 2.8 respectively [4] 3.2 Spot Market - Yesterday's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ and Dated Brent were 909 dollars/ton, 5145 yuan/ton, 3625 yuan/ton, 612.38 dollars/ton and 72.04 dollars/barrel respectively. Their price changes were 8.67 dollars/ton, 37 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, 14.5 dollars/ton and - 0.07 dollars/barrel respectively [4] - Yesterday's spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, staple fiber processing fee, bottle chip processing fee and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 294.05 dollars/ton, 378.86 yuan/ton, 71.28 yuan/ton, 294.17 yuan/ton and - 4.34 dollars/ton respectively. Their price changes were 5.96 dollars/ton, - 49.15 yuan/ton, 29.19 yuan/ton, 70.13 yuan/ton and 0 dollars/ton respectively [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - PX: Asian xylene prices were evaluated as rising in the upstream market. The CFR Unv1/China and FOB South Korea quotes of Asian paraxylene on February 10 were 909 dollars/ton and 888 dollars/ton respectively, with a single - day increase of 8.67 dollars/ton. The PX - naphtha physical spread shrank to 296.625 dollars/ton on that day, with an intraday decrease of 5.83 dollars/ton [5][7] - PTA: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China was expected to stop on the evening of February 10, and the specific restart time was undetermined [8] - MEG: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the statistical period was extended to February 23. From February 9 to February 23, the expected arrival quantities in Zhangjiagang, Taicang, Ningbo and Shanghai were about 97,000 tons, 63,000 tons, 21,000 tons and 0 tons respectively, and the total planned arrival quantity at the main ports was about 181,000 tons [8] - Polyester: A 460,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in Jiangyin gradually reduced production to 350 tons per day from February 10 for half a month. A 200,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in Fujian stopped for maintenance from February 10, and another 250,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory reduced production by 30% from February 10 [8] 3.4 Market Sales - On February 10, most direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories had no sales. As of around 3:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was 31% [9] - On February 10, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to be weak. As of around 4:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was estimated to be around 20% [9] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [10] 3.6 Supply and Demand Analysis - PX: In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain gradually weakens. PX operating rate rises to 89.5% (+0.3%), and the Asian device operating rate is 82.4% (+0.8%). The PTA demand side has no obvious change and remains at 77.6% (+1%) [11] - PTA: The terminal demand is that domestic textile sales ended in January, foreign trade has orders, and the polyester operating rate is expected to be 80.5% in February and recover to 91% in March. The current polyester inventory is moderately low, and the pressure after the festival is less than in previous years [11] - MEG: The supply side has an increasing operating rate this week, reaching 76.22% (+1.85%). Overseas device supply will decrease significantly in March. However, due to the large - scale shutdown of polyester on the demand side, the inventory accumulation pressure in February is large, and it is difficult to digest the inventory after the festival [12]