西南期货早间评论-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. There is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, and caution is advised [6]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and there is room for repair. The stock index fluctuation center is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9]. - The global trade - financial environment is complex. The trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold, but the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products and iron ore is weak, and they may continue the weak shock pattern in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [14][16]. - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke is complex. They may continue the shock pattern in the medium - term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [19]. - The overall over - supply pressure of ferroalloys continues, but the cost support is gradually strengthening. After the price drops, attention can be paid to the long - position opportunities in the low - level range [21]. - The negotiation between the US and Iran is complex, and geopolitical risks still exist. The capital is still bullish on crude oil prices, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue [24]. - The tight supply of Singapore fuel oil has eased, but the rebound of crude oil at the cost end drives the fuel oil price to rebound, and there is still room for the fuel oil price to rise [27]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins will decrease significantly, and cautious operation is recommended before the festival [29]. - Synthetic rubber may show a relatively strong shock trend, and attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and infrastructure construction after the Lantern Festival and the inventory destocking rate of tire enterprises [31]. - Natural rubber may show a shock trend, and positions should be controlled before the festival [34]. - PVC may show a relatively strong shock trend, and the key to price and inventory lies in the demand recovery after the Spring Festival [36]. - Urea may show a shock - strong trend, and attention should be paid to Indian tenders, domestic policies, and the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the festival [39]. - PX may be mainly in shock adjustment in the short - term, and cautious participation is recommended, paying attention to the fluctuation risk of overseas crude oil during the Spring Festival [42]. - PTA may be in shock operation in the short - term, and it is recommended to operate carefully, paying attention to oil price changes [43]. - Ethylene glycol may maintain a shock - bottoming pattern in the short - term, and it is recommended to operate carefully, paying attention to port inventory and supply changes [45]. - Short - fiber is still trading based on the cost - end logic before the festival, and it is recommended to wait and see carefully, paying attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday stocking [46]. - Bottle chips are expected to follow the cost - end operation, and cautious participation is recommended before the festival, paying attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [49]. - The fundamentals of soda ash are still loose, and it should be treated with caution [50]. - The fundamentals of glass are still loose, and it is expected to be in shock before the festival, paying attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [51]. - The seasonal characteristics of caustic soda are significant, and although the disk rose yesterday, the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, so it should be treated with caution [54]. - Pulp is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival due to factors such as inventory accumulation and weak terminal demand [57]. - The price of lithium carbonate has short - term support, but the short - term fluctuation may increase, and risk control is necessary [58]. - Copper prices may be weakly adjusted before the festival due to weakening market sentiment and fundamentals [60]. - Aluminum prices may be under pressure as speculative funds leave the market this month [62]. - Zinc prices will enter an adjustment period as market sentiment cools and zinc ingots accumulate [64]. - Lead prices may show a weak shock trend due to the weak supply - demand pattern [66]. - Tin prices have support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [67]. - Nickel is still in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [69]. - For soybean meal, attention can be paid to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [71]. - For palm oil, attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips [73]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily [76]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see before the festival [79]. - Sugar prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term [83]. - Apple prices are expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, and it is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long in batches after the price pulls back [84]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to wait and see before the festival as the supply may still face pressure after the festival [87]. - For eggs, it is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go short at high prices after the festival [88]. - Corn and corn starch may follow the corn market, and patience is needed to wait for the release of supply pressure after the festival [91]. - The fundamentals of logs are under pressure, and attention should be paid to overseas quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [95]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, the closing performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The central bank carried out 311.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 205.9 billion yuan. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. It is expected that treasury bond futures still have some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The market regulatory authorities approved a batch of important national standards. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The stock index fluctuation center is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver main contracts fell. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the value of gold, but the recent sharp rise has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed a weak shock. In the medium - term, the price is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the supply pressure still exists. The price may continue the weak shock pattern, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [13][14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted out. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, and the port inventory is rising. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue the shock pattern in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to pull back. The supply of coking coal may decrease in the later period, and the demand for coke is weak. They may continue the shock pattern in the medium - term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [18][19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still in a loose state, but the cost support is gradually strengthening. After the price drops, attention can be paid to the long - position opportunities in the low - level range [21]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The negotiation between the US and Iran is complex, and geopolitical risks still exist. The capital is still bullish on crude oil prices, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue. Investors can pay attention to the long - position opportunity of the main crude oil contract [22][24]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The tight supply of Singapore fuel oil has eased, but the rebound of crude oil at the cost end drives the fuel oil price to rebound, and there is still room for the fuel oil price to rise. Investors can pay attention to the long - position opportunity of the main fuel oil contract [26][27]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the price of polyolefins declined. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand will decrease significantly, and cautious operation is recommended before the festival [29]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. It may show a relatively strong shock trend, and attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and infrastructure construction after the Lantern Festival and the inventory destocking rate of tire enterprises [31]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose. It may show a shock trend, and positions should be controlled before the festival [34]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. It may show a relatively strong shock trend, and the key to price and inventory lies in the demand recovery after the Spring Festival [36]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. It may show a shock - strong trend, and attention should be paid to Indian tenders, domestic policies, and the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the festival [39]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. It may be mainly in shock adjustment in the short - term, and cautious participation is recommended, paying attention to the fluctuation risk of overseas crude oil during the Spring Festival [40][42]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. It may be in shock operation in the short - term, and it is recommended to operate carefully, paying attention to oil price changes [43]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. It may maintain a shock - bottoming pattern in the short - term, and it is recommended to operate carefully, paying attention to port inventory and supply changes [44][45]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. It is still trading based on the cost - end logic before the festival, and it is recommended to wait and see carefully, paying attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday stocking [46]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. It is expected to follow the cost - end operation, and cautious participation is recommended before the festival, paying attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [47][49]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the soda - ash main contract fell. The fundamentals are still loose, and it should be treated with caution [50]. Glass - On the previous trading day, the glass main contract fell. The fundamentals are still loose, and it is expected to be in shock before the festival, paying attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [51]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the caustic - soda main contract rose. The seasonal characteristics are significant, and although the disk rose yesterday, the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, so it should be treated with caution [53][54]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, the pulp main contract fell. The inventory continues to accumulate, the terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [55][57]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium - carbonate main contract rose. The price has short - term support, but the short - term fluctuation may increase, and risk control is necessary [58]. Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The market sentiment has declined, and the fundamentals have weakened. The copper price may be weakly adjusted before the festival [59][60]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract was flat, and the alumina main contract fell. The alumina cost support is not strong, and the aluminum price may be under pressure this month [62]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the zinc price will enter an adjustment period [64]. Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price may show a weak shock trend [65][66]. Tin - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose. The supply - demand pattern is tight, and the tin price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [67]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose. Nickel is still in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [68][69]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal and soybean - oil main contracts fell. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal continues to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. For soybean meal, attention can be paid to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [70][71]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm - oil market fell. The inventory in Malaysia is still at a high level, and the export has declined. The domestic palm - oil inventory is at a medium - to - high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [72][73]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures rose. The export volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decline, while the export volume of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to increase. The domestic rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil inventories are in different states. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [74][76]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated. The USDA February supply - demand report is bearish, but the domestic supply is expected to be tight in the future, and the demand has resilience. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival [77][79]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly. The Indian sugar production is expected to increase strongly, and the domestic market is facing the dual supply pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar. It is expected to be weak in the medium - term [81][82]. Apple - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. It is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long in batches after the price pulls back [84]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, the live - pig main contract fell. The overall supply exceeds demand, and the consumption boost is limited before the Spring Festival. The supply may still face pressure after the festival. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival [86][87]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg main contract rose. The egg supply in February is expected to remain at a relatively high level. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go short at high prices after the festival [88]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts rose. The supply pressure of corn is still large, but the demand is strong. Corn starch may follow the corn market, and patience is needed to wait for the release of supply pressure after the festival [89][91]. Logs - On the previous trading day, the log main contract fell. The shipping volume has returned to normal, but the downstream demand is weakening. The fundamentals are under pressure, and attention should be paid to overseas quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [92][95].