1月政策跟踪观察：积极因素正在累积

Real Estate Sector - The most challenging period for the real estate sector may have passed, with supply and demand pressures easing, as evidenced by a narrowing year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transaction area to -14.7%[2] - In first-tier cities, the year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transactions narrowed by over 25% to -0.95%[2] - Government fund revenue decline narrowed to -11.7% in December 2025, while land transfer revenue fell by 22.9%, a 3.9 percentage point improvement from November[2] Policy Coordination - Multiple ministries have strengthened policy coordination, with a net increase of over 280 billion yuan in government bond financing in January compared to the previous year[4] - As of February 8, 2026, the cumulative issuance of government bonds, new general bonds, and new special bonds reached 12,915 billion yuan, an increase of 2,860 billion yuan year-on-year[4] - The central bank announced an increase in the re-lending quota for technological innovation and technological transformation by 400 billion yuan[4] Local Government Initiatives - Local governments are proactively deploying economic work, with some regions moving their "New Year first meeting" to after New Year's Day to kickstart annual work early[6] - By the end of January, 20 provinces and cities had disclosed their GDP targets for 2026, with a weighted average of 5.1%, indicating a more pragmatic and positive outlook[6] - Investment growth targets show regional differentiation, with Xinjiang setting a high target of around 8%[6] Consumer Spending Initiatives - The 2026 Spring Festival will feature the longest holiday in history, with holiday consumption becoming a key driver for first-quarter domestic demand and overall economic recovery[7] - Local policies have shifted from traditional physical consumption stimulation to a balanced focus on both physical and service consumption, with significant consumer vouchers and cultural tourism subsidies being issued in various regions[7] - Notable initiatives include Henan and Hubei issuing large consumer vouchers and promoting rich cultural tourism activities during the Spring Festival[7]