棉花：节前预计维持震荡走势20260211

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The cotton market is expected to maintain a volatile trend before the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - CF2605 closed at 14,655 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.51%, and its night - session closed at 14,680 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase. The trading volume was 483,290 lots, an increase of 148,619 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,047,760 lots, an increase of 1,712 lots [1]. - CY2605 closed at 20,440 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.39%, and its night - session closed at 20,495 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase. The trading volume was 9,043 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 11,906 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE US cotton 3 closed at 61.59 cents/pound with a 0.02% increase [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,686, an increase of 106 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1,112, a decrease of 56 [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 7, a decrease of 7 [1]. - Spot Price Data: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,784 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan or 0.51% from the previous day [1]. - The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan or 0.51% from the previous day [1]. - The price in Shandong was 16,037 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day [1]. - The price in Hebei was 16,057 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan or 0.06% from the previous day [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,988 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day [1]. - The Cotlook:A index was 72.55 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.34% from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day [1]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,991 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan or 0.32% from the previous day [1]. - Spread Data: - The CF3 - 5 spread was 60 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, and the basis was generally stable. The offers of Beijiang lint were relatively fewer than those of Nanjiang. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 north - and south - Xinjiang machine - picked cotton in Shandong and Henan warehouses was mostly at CF05 + 1600 - 1750, and some were lower. The low basis of 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurities within 3.5 and micronaire value above 4 was at CF05 + 1200 - 1300, and many offers were 1300 and above [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The pure - cotton yarn market has fully entered the pre - holiday closing stage. Only a few large spinning enterprises made minor price adjustments, most spinning enterprises either stopped offering prices or kept their prices stable, and the operating rate in the inland area continued to decline [2]. - US Cotton: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures first rose and then fell. In the morning, ICE cotton futures continued the rebound momentum of the previous day, reaching a maximum of 62.28 cents/pound. However, affected by the US Department of Agriculture's downward adjustment of the export forecast of US cotton in the 25/26 season in the monthly supply - and - demand report, ICE cotton closed at 61.59 cents/pound [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [5]