国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属-20260211

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to have an oscillating rebound, while silver is likely to experience a decline from its high level. Copper's price increase is restricted by rising inventory. Zinc lacks upward momentum. Lead's price is under pressure due to increased domestic inventory. Tin is in an oscillating adjustment phase. Aluminum is expected to trade within a range, and alumina is predicted to experience a slight decline. Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Platinum will continue to oscillate and consolidate, and palladium will trade in a narrow range. Nickel is affected by news from Indonesia, and the departure of pre - holiday funds limits its upward potential. Stainless steel is experiencing frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and cost support is shifting upwards [2]. Summary According to the Directory Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,125.94 with a daily increase of 3.29%, and the night - session closing price was 1127.00 with a 1.00% increase. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 20873 with a 10.24% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 20934.00 with a 5.24% increase. The trading volume and positions of both gold and silver futures decreased compared to the previous day [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged at 104,052 kg, while the Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces) decreased by 121,403. The inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 31354 kg, and the Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces) decreased by 3,498,075 [4]. - Macroeconomic News: Before the important non - farm payroll report, the White House gave a "pre - warning", suggesting that employment growth may be lower than expected. The UK Prime Minister's political crisis was temporarily alleviated. The US advised US merchant ships to stay away from Iranian territorial waters. Japan's Prime Minister stated that deficit bonds would not be issued to fund consumption tax cuts. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges optimized the refinancing review for high - quality listed companies. Alphabet's US dollar bond issuance is expected to raise $20 billion, and it also plans to issue 100 - year pound bonds [4][6][7][8]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 101,560 with a - 0.27% daily decrease, and the night - session closing price was 101730 with a 0.17% increase. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai Copper decreased compared to the previous day [9]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Copper inventory increased by 8,811 to 165,939, and the London Copper inventory increased by 4,800 to 189,100 [9]. - Macroeconomic and Industry News: In December, US retail sales showed zero growth month - on - month, which strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to include "copper concentrate" in the national reserve. Glencore Canada suspended major investment in a smelter, and Anglo American's copper production in Q4 2025 decreased by 14% year - on - year. Capstone Copper will resume full - scale production at a copper - gold mine in Chile, and Harmony Gold's newly acquired Australian copper mine needs two years of renovation [9][11]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24505 with a - 0.24% daily decrease, and the London Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 3382 with a - 0.03% decrease. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc decreased, while the positions increased. The trading volume of London Zinc decreased, and the positions increased [12]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 2971 to 34235 tons, and the London Zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons to 106750 tons [12]. - Macroeconomic News: The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and conduct regular treasury bond trading operations. Ray Dalio warned that the US is on the verge of order collapse and civil war, and gold is the only safe - haven asset [13]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16690 with a 0.63% daily increase, and the London Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 1974.5 with a 0.46% increase. The trading volume of Shanghai Lead decreased, and the positions increased. The trading volume of London Lead increased, and the positions increased [15]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Lead futures inventory increased by 4687 to 45460 tons, and the London Lead inventory remained unchanged at 232750 tons [15]. - Macroeconomic News: In December, US retail sales showed zero growth month - on - month, which strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [15]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 382,000 with a 3.33% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 386,250 with a 1.06% increase. The London Tin 3M electronic - disk closing price was 49,230 with a - 1.17% decrease. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin decreased, and the positions decreased. The trading volume of London Tin decreased, and the positions increased [18]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 48 to 6,385, and the London Tin inventory increased by 400 to 7,430 [18]. - Macroeconomic and Industry News: The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Shanghai has opened over 5200 kilometers of autonomous driving test roads. TSMC approved a capital budget of $44.962 billion. The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments will accelerate the promotion of artificial intelligence in the tendering and bidding field [18][20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23515 with a - 25 decrease. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2835 with a - 33 decrease. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22120 with a - 45 decrease. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Alumina, and aluminum alloy all showed different degrees of change [21]. - Inventory and Market Conditions: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 26.80 tons, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum ingot warehouse receipts were 16.65 tons, and the London Aluminum ingot inventory was 48.70 tons. The prices of various aluminum - related products and the profits of enterprises also changed [21]. - Macroeconomic News: In December, US retail sales showed zero growth month - on - month, and TSMC's January sales increased by 36.8% year - on - year [23]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 537.50 with a - 1.39% decrease, and the closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 429.05 with a - 2.08% decrease. The trading volume and positions of both platinum and palladium decreased compared to the previous day [25]. - Macroeconomic and Industry News: Trump proposed that the US interest rate should be 2 percentage points lower. Fed officials had different views on interest rate policies. In December, US retail sales showed zero growth month - on - month. Alphabet plans to issue pound and Swiss franc bonds. Li Qiang called for the rational development of rare earth resources [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 133,350 with a - 1,170 decrease, and the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,740 with a 5 increase. The trading volume of both Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel decreased [29]. - Industry News: The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses. China implemented export license management for some steel products. The Indonesian government may adjust the nickel ore production quota and price formula. There were various incidents in the Indonesian nickel industry, such as potential fines for illegal land use, monopoly investigations in a port, and a shipwreck [29][30][32].