碳酸锂：市场预期回温，盘面震荡企稳，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The market expectation of lithium carbonate has warmed up, and the disk has stabilized in shock. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see before the Spring Festival, as there are still many uncertainties [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 137,340 yuan/ton, with the trading volume dropping to 295,200 lots and the open interest increasing to 345,900 lots. The net short position of the main funds continued, and the long - short ratio of the net position increased month - on - month. The daily inventory of lithium carbonate on the GZFE increased by 940 lots to 35,537 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 136,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan/ton. The Spring Festival stockpiling is almost over, with most enterprises having a low psychological purchase price, being cautious and waiting and seeing, and the market inquiry and trading being relatively light [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Last week, the raw material market generally declined. The SMM total weekly operating rate was 47.29% (-2.21%), and the operating rates of all processes except lithium mica decreased. The SMM weekly total output was 20,744 tons (-825 tons) [4]. - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory was destocked. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales increased to 55.6%, remaining at a relatively high level. The energy - storage battery cells performed strongly, with both production and sales booming and low inventory [4]. - Inventory: According to SMM data, last week, the social inventory of the four - place samples increased by 3.73% month - on - month to 43,050 tons, the weekly inventory of the samples decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, the total inventory days increased to 30 days, and the downstream inventory days increased to 11.8 days (+9.26% month - on - month), showing passive inventory accumulation, structural differentiation, and poor transmission [4]. Macro - policy Analysis - Demand - side: Multiple incentives such as subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and tax rebates for battery exports stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [5]. - Supply - side: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term, and raise the cost support center [5]. - Industrial Planning: The industrial planning of Qinghai Salt Lake, the key points of energy - storage during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits to support the long - term supply - demand balance [5]. - Macro - environment: The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [5].