生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260211

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][3][16] Group 2: Core Views - The overall supply of sugar remains relatively abundant, and the price is likely to move downward. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures should be temporarily observed. [3] - Pulp is dragged down by the downstream off - season, but the probability of the pulp futures price falling below 5000 in the short term is low. It is recommended to short - allocate in the short - term. [4] - The cost support for double - offset paper is weakening, and the price increase is limited. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with the basis. [5] - The domestic cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in the 05 contract. [6] - The supply - side support for apples remains, and the price may continue to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at lows. [7] - For jujubes, it is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points in the 2605 contract, and long - position holders can buy protective put options. [8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Apple 2605: Reduce long positions. The supply - side support remains, but the commodity sentiment is volatile. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500. [16] - Jujube 2605: Buy on dips in the short - term. The expected yield reduction may be reflected in the distant months, and the spot inventory is peaking. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800. [16] - Sugar 2605: Sell on rebounds. The global sugar supply is still in excess, and the domestic supply is in the peak season. The support range is 5070 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5320. [16] - Pulp 2605: Allocate long positions lightly. Downstream is in the off - season, and there is cost support. The support range is 5130 - 5200, and the pressure range is 5360 - 5400. [16] - Double - offset paper 2605: Operate within the range. The spot market is stable, but the demand is in the off - season. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300. [16] - Cotton 2605: Reduce long positions. The long - term bullish expectation remains, but the external price is bottom - seeking. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500. [16] 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market Situation - Fundamental Information: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 5, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main production areas was 5,635,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 375,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 554,900 tons. [17] - Spot Market Situation: In Shandong, the price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples is stable. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage trading is decreasing. In the sales areas, the arrival volume has increased significantly, and the sales are okay with stable prices. [17][18][19] 3.2.2 Jujube Market Situation - As of February 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,888 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year increase of 12.84%. The inventory is decreasing, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end. [20] 3.2.3 Sugar Market Situation - From the start of the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to the first half of January, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 345,000 tons. As of the week of February 3, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 210,289 contracts, showing strong bearish sentiment. [23] 3.2.4 Pulp Market - Affected by the decline in futures prices and weakening demand, the Chinese pulp market continues to weaken. The price of resold BSK has fallen, and the import price of NBSK has also declined, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remain stable. [26] 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market - The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed. The operating load rate was 57.43%, with a slight increase and a narrowing increase rate. The industry's destocking speed has decreased. [27] 3.2.6 Cotton Market - In January, Bangladesh imported about 125,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 10.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. As of the week of February 7, the net signed export volume of Egyptian cotton decreased by 52.8% week - on - week, and the shipment volume increased by 94.0% week - on - week. [28] 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9500 | - 17 | - 0.18% | | Jujube 2605 | 8670 | - 55 | - 0.63% | | Sugar 2605 | 5278 | 17 | 0.32% | | Pulp 2605 | 5202 | 2 | 0.04% | | Cotton 2605 | 14655 | 75 | 0.51% | [29] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5330 | 20 | - 630 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5300 | 0 | - 1400 | | Double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 600 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15988 | 21 | 1181 | [35] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation - Relevant basis data for apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are presented in the form of figures, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text. [45][49][50][52][54] 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1280 | - 38 | 1909 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 250 | - 10 | 160 | Reverse spread on highs | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 10 | 3 | - 139 | Oscillate | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 115 | 10 | 50 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on highs | [57] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation - The top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, and net long and short position changes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are presented in figures, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text. [63][64][68][74][82] 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 3546 | 196 | - 526 | | Sugar | 14461 | 0 | - 9526 | | Pulp | 146427 | - 20 | - 193557 | | Cotton | 10686 | 106 | 3951 | [89] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - Option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, and historical volatility data for apple, sugar, and cotton are presented in figures, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text. [91][92][100][105]