中辉有色观点-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term strategic allocation, pay attention to adjustment range [1] - Silver: Wait for volatility reduction, short - term participation is difficult [1] - Copper: Long - term holding, short - term pay attention to risk [1] - Zinc: Pressure, short - term empty - position holiday, medium - long - term callback to try long [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Wide - range shock, empty - position holiday [1] - Polysilicon: Under pressure, cautious participation [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Rebound, wait for stabilization and then go long [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The US data is declining, and the Fed officials emphasize the Fed's independence. The long - term strategic allocation value of gold remains unchanged due to geopolitical reshaping, central bank gold purchases, etc [1]. - The trading game of silver is intense, with short - term adjustment and long - term supply - demand gap [1]. - Copper is an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game, with long - term optimism but short - term macro risks [1]. - Zinc speculation cools down, and the inventory accumulates in the off - season [1]. - The prices of lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel are under pressure in the short term due to various supply - demand factors [1]. - Industrial silicon has slightly improved supply - demand, and the trading volume is light before the Spring Festival [1]. - Polysilicon has inventory accumulation pressure, and the market is mainly affected by policy expectations [1]. - Lithium carbonate inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to stabilize and rebound [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Performance: The market is in consolidation, with gold and silver in narrow - range fluctuations. COMEX gold futures fell 0.62%, COMEX silver futures fell 2.01%. Spot gold once fell more than 1% and broke through $5000, and silver futures once fell more than 3% [2]. - Industry Logic: The US December retail sales were stagnant, and consumer spending was weak. China's central bank continued to buy gold. The three pillars supporting the gold price are still stable, but the market needs time to digest volatility [3][4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Domestic gold pays attention to the support around 1060, and silver pays attention to the support around 19000. Continue to pay attention to volatility reduction [4]. Copper - Market Performance: The market is waiting for non - farm data, and copper is in high - level consolidation. The prices of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper have different degrees of decline [5]. - Industry Logic: The global copper mine is in short supply, and the growth of copper smelting capacity has been curbed. The inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the demand is weak in the off - season [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term: Take profit on long positions and hold cash and empty positions for the holiday. Medium - long - term: Bullish on copper. Short - term Shanghai copper pays attention to the range of [100000, 105000] yuan/ton, and LME copper pays attention to the range of [12800, 13500] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - Market Performance: Shanghai zinc is under pressure. The prices of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc have small fluctuations [8]. - Industry Logic: The global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term: Reduce positions, control risks, and hold cash and empty positions for the holiday. Medium - long - term: Try long on dips. Shanghai zinc pays attention to the range of [24000, 25000], and LME zinc pays attention to the range of [3300, 3400] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The aluminum price rebounds under pressure, and alumina falls under pressure [11]. - Industry Logic: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. The electrolytic aluminum inventory is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The alumina market's over - supply situation has slightly improved [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term: Take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operation range is [22000 - 24500] [14]. Nickel - Market Performance: The nickel price rebounds slightly, and stainless steel rebounds [15]. - Industry Logic: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. Indonesia will reduce the nickel ore production quota in 2026. The domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating, and the stainless steel inventory is slightly increasing in the off - season [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to Indonesia's policy and the change of downstream stainless steel inventory. The main operation range of nickel is [120000 - 145000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2605 opens low and goes high, but fails to stand firm at the 140,000 - yuan mark [19]. - Industry Logic: The peripheral precious metal and non - ferrous metal sectors are warming up, and lithium carbonate follows the market to rebound. The inventory is decreasing in the off - season, but the market is worried about inventory accumulation in the peak season [20]. - Strategy Recommendation: After stabilization, lightly build long positions in the range of [135000 - 145000] [21].