有色金属日报 2026-2-11-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, with strong manufacturing sentiment providing support. The copper price is expected to fluctuate, with the Shanghai copper main contract reference range of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M reference range of 13,000 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [5]. - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, with weak demand in the off - season; LME aluminum inventories remain relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for the aluminum price. Before the holiday, the aluminum price is expected to be range - bound, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract reference range of 23,300 - 23,800 yuan/ton and the LME aluminum 3M reference range of 3,080 - 3,130 US dollars/ton [8]. - Lead: The visible lead ore inventory has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains low. The scrap battery inventory continues to rise. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. Whether the lead price can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [10]. - Zinc: The visible zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate, and the downstream industry is performing weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment. Strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise [12]. - Tin: Short - term precious metal prices show signs of stabilizing after a second decline, and tin prices may rebound. In the short term, due to the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventories, there is pressure on a significant increase. The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - Nickel: Precious metal and risk asset prices have stabilized after a second decline, with a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and the short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations and is expected to have limited impact on the nickel price [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: Before the holiday, funds are in a wait - and - see mood. The future lithium demand is expected to be strong. If the resumption of production of large mines in Jiangxi fails, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate after the Spring Festival will still be tight. Currently, there is a lack of new drivers, and the lithium price is likely to fluctuate within a range [19]. - Alumina: There is a strike in the bauxite mine in Guinea, and the subsequent impact needs to be observed. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [22]. - Stainless Steel: From the supply side, the raw material supply has recovered, but the agents' shipment rhythm has slowed down under the steel mill's price - limit policy. From the demand side, affected by the pre - Spring Festival off - season, the market's purchasing willingness is not strong. The market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and it is recommended to maintain the strategy of buying low, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 13,900 yuan/ton [24]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has risen. Despite general demand, the short - term price is still supported under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Market Information: The US retail sales data was weaker than expected. Overnight, the US stock market rose and then fell, and the copper price fluctuated and adjusted. The LME copper 3M closed down 0.64% to 13,100 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,730 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 4,800 tons to 189,100 tons. Domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.9 to 166,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a premium of 5 yuan/ton to the futures, and the spot in Guangdong was at a discount of 105 yuan/ton to the futures. The spot import of Shanghai copper had a loss of about 700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, with strong manufacturing sentiment providing support. The copper price is expected to fluctuate, with the Shanghai copper main contract reference range of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M reference range of 13,000 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [5]. Aluminum - Market Information: As the long holiday approaches, market volatility has decreased. The increasing uncertainty of the Mozambique aluminum plant's production cut has led to an adjustment in the aluminum price. The LME aluminum closed down 0.8% to 3,105 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,545 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 0.4 to 663,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 167,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories in three regions increased, and aluminum rod inventories rose. The LME aluminum ingot inventories decreased by 0.2 to 487,000 tons [7]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, with weak demand in the off - season; LME aluminum inventories remain relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for the aluminum price. Before the holiday, the aluminum price is expected to be range - bound, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract reference range of 23,300 - 23,800 yuan/ton and the LME aluminum 3M reference range of 3,080 - 3,130 US dollars/ton [8]. Lead - Market Information: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.52% to 16,688 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 126,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S rose 11.5 to 1,970 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 176,300 lots. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,525 yuan/ton, and the recycled refined lead average price was 16,500 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 45,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 232,800 tons [9]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The visible lead ore inventory has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains low. The scrap battery inventory continues to rise. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. Whether the lead price can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [10]. Zinc - Market Information: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.30% to 24,494 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 193,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S rose 5 to 3,366.5 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 229,400 lots. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,460 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 34,200 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,900 tons [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The visible zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate, and the downstream industry is performing weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment. Strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise [12]. Tin - Market Information: On February 10, the tin price fluctuated narrowly. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 382,000 yuan/ton, down 0.57% from the previous day. On the supply side, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained high and stable last week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. On the demand side, although the price decline has released some rigid procurement demand and spot transactions have slightly improved, the overall price is still at a high level, and the downstream's pre - holiday restocking willingness is not obvious [13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Short - term precious metal prices show signs of stabilizing after a second decline, and tin prices may rebound. In the short term, due to the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventories, there is pressure on a significant increase. The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract reference range is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin reference range is 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - Market Information: On February 10, the nickel price fell slightly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 133,350 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Precious metal and risk asset prices have stabilized after a second decline, with a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and the short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations and is expected to have limited impact on the nickel price. The Shanghai nickel price reference range is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract reference range is 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 136,408 yuan in the evening session, up 0.06% from the previous trading day. The LC2605 contract closed at 137,340 yuan, up 0.25% from the previous closing price [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Before the holiday, funds are in a wait - and - see mood. The future lithium demand is expected to be strong. If the resumption of production of large mines in Jiangxi fails, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate after the Spring Festival will still be tight. Currently, there is a lack of new drivers, and the lithium price is likely to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 129,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - Market Information: On February 10, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index fell 1.11% to 2,837 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 468,200 lots, a decrease of 14,600 lots from the previous trading day. The Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 280 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at 304 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was reported at - 69 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts on Tuesday were reported at 251,000 tons, an increase of 84,000 tons from the previous trading day [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: There is a strike in the bauxite mine in Guinea, and the subsequent impact needs to be observed. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The future price trend depends on whether the Guinea mine disturbance can be materialized and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated. The domestic main contract AO2605 reference range is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: At 15:00 on Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,740 yuan/ton, up 0.04% (+5) on the day, with a unilateral position of 211,200 lots, a decrease of 6,582 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the prices of cold - rolled coils in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged. The raw material prices also remained stable. The futures inventory was 47,800 tons, an increase of 4,221 from the previous day. As of February 6, social inventories increased to 914,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07%, and the 300 - series inventory was 632,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49% [24]. - Strategy Viewpoint: From the supply side, the raw material supply has recovered, but the agents' shipment rhythm has slowed down under the steel mill's price - limit policy. From the demand side, affected by the pre - Spring Festival off - season, the market's purchasing willingness is not strong. The market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and it is recommended to maintain the strategy of buying low, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 13,900 yuan/ton [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: Yesterday, the cast aluminum alloy price fluctuated. The main AD2604 contract closed down 0.2% to 22,120 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased to 25,000 lots, and the trading volume was 8,700 lots. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.12 to 67,300 tons. The domestic three - region aluminum alloy inventory decreased by 0.01 to 40,900 tons [26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has risen. Despite general demand, the short - term price is still supported under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [27].