宏观经济专题：AI产业链产品出口或将延续强势

Supply and Demand - Construction activity is showing seasonal recovery, with cement shipment rates and mill operation rates at historical highs for the lunar calendar period, while asphalt plant operation rates are at historical lows[15] - Industrial production remains resilient, with strong performance in the chemical and automotive sectors, while coking shows weakness; overall industrial operating rates are at historical highs for the lunar calendar period[24] - Demand in construction remains weak, with apparent demand for rebar, wire rods, and building materials at historical lows; however, major home appliance sales are showing signs of recovery[33] Prices - Domestic industrial product prices are experiencing strong fluctuations; the Nanhua Industrial Index is trending upwards, while rebar and coal prices are declining[45] - International commodity prices show rising crude oil prices, while copper, aluminum, and gold prices are experiencing declines[42] Real Estate - New housing transactions are significantly down, with a year-on-year decline of 34% and 35% compared to the lunar calendar periods of 2024 and 2025, respectively; first-tier cities show a decline of 17% and 33%[63] - Second-hand housing transactions have turned negative, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing year-on-year declines of 2%, 9%, and 25%, respectively[67] Exports - AI industry chain product exports are expected to remain strong, with a projected year-on-year decline of approximately 3.9% for the first 39 days of 2026; however, excluding model predictions, container ship numbers indicate a decline of only 1%[71] - Exports from South Korea, Vietnam, and Taiwan show resilience, with AI industry chain product exports continuing to grow significantly[78] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with the R007 at 1.53% and DR007 at 1.46% as of February 6, 2026; the central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 508.2 billion yuan through reverse repos[79][84] Risk Warning - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and policy measures exceeding expectations[89]