碳酸锂日报（2026年2月11日）-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 2.04% to 137,230 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 500 yuan/ton to 136,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 500 yuan/ton to 132,500 yuan/ton, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 750 yuan/ton to 133,750 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 940 tons to 35,537 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 825 tons to 20,744 tons. The production schedule of battery - grade lithium carbonate in February decreased by 17.6% month - on - month to 58,835 tons, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 12.7% month - on - month to 23,095 tons. On the demand side, the production schedule of ternary materials in February decreased by 14.6% month - on - month to 69,250 tons, and that of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 10.7% month - on - month to 354,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 3,058 tons to 43,657 tons, other links decreasing by 4,430 tons to 43,450 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 647 tons to 18,356 tons [3]. - Previously, the spot trading volume increased, mainly from downstream. The downstream's Spring Festival stocking is basically over, and there has been some strategic stocking. If the price runs strongly in the short term, actual purchases may turn cold, which will drag down the price. The January shipment data from Chile increased significantly month - on - month, but it was due to early shipments because of the Spring Festival, and the volume is unsustainable. The significant supply pressure on China may be reflected after the Spring Festival. At the same time, domestic production will gradually resume in March. The key will be whether there is an unexpected increase in demand. If it is only the same as in December last year, the inventory reduction of over 6,000 tons in February will turn into a tight - balance or slight inventory accumulation in March. However, the continuous decline in post - festival inventory levels may become a significant bullish support, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract was 137,340 yuan/ton on February 10, 2026, up 340 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 135,880 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,900 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars [5]. - Among lithium ores, the prices of lithium mica (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 7% - 8%) remained unchanged [5]. - In the lithium carbonate market, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 136,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 132,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. In the lithium hydroxide market, the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 133,750 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 140,250 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 123,200 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged at 17.25 US dollars/kg. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 125,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Regarding price differences, the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 3,500 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 yuan to - 2,250 yuan/ton. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 862 yuan to - 13,934.95 yuan/ton [5]. - In the precursor and cathode material market, among ternary precursors, the prices of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type), ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type), ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type), and ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) remained unchanged. Among ternary materials, the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 182,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 174,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 177,450 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) was 199,450 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan. The prices of lithium iron phosphate (power type), lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage), and lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) increased by 120 yuan/ton. The prices of lithium manganate (power type) and lithium manganate (capacity type) remained unchanged. The price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) remained unchanged at 407,000 yuan/ton [5]. - In the battery market, the prices of 523 square ternary cells (yuan/Wh), 523 soft - pack ternary cells (yuan/Wh), and square lithium iron phosphate cells (yuan/Wh) remained unchanged. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 6.25 yuan/piece, up 0.1 yuan. The price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.318 yuan/Wh, up 0.003 yuan [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][18]. - Price Differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2026 [20][22][25]. - Precursor and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [27][29][31]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [33][36]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from June 2025 to February 2026 [38][41]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to February 2026 [42][43].