有色金属月度策略-20260211

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report Core Views - The non - ferrous metals sector has been significantly adjusted and then repaired, with differentiated trends. After the pressure of adjustment is fully released, it is advisable to go long on dips based on the strength of fundamentals [12]. - This week, due to the brief shutdown of the US government, the non - farm payrolls and CPI will be released in the same week. There is a need to be vigilant about the combination of "weak employment + strong inflation". China will release January's social financing and inflation data to verify the "good start" of the economy. Additionally, the US and Iran plan to hold a new round of negotiations [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - Macro Logic: The non - ferrous metals market is generally volatile, with the holiday atmosphere intensifying and trading volume decreasing. The market narrative has shifted to uncertainty. The non - ferrous metals sector has been adjusted and then repaired, with different trends among varieties. After the adjustment pressure is released, one can go long on dips according to the fundamentals [12]. - This Week's Focus: Non - farm payrolls and CPI will be released in the same week in the US, and China will release January's social financing and inflation data. The US and Iran will have a new round of negotiations [13]. - Strategies for Each Variety: - Copper: It is recommended to go long on dips. The support range is 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 108000 - 110000 yuan/ton [14]. - Zinc: It is advisable to go long on dips. The support range is 23800 - 24000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 25000 - 25500 yuan/ton [15]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: It is recommended to wait and see. For aluminum, the support range is 22000 - 22300 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 26000 - 27000 yuan/ton; for alumina, it is advisable to short on rallies. The support range is 2300 - 2600 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 2900 - 3000 yuan/ton [15]. - Tin: It is recommended to wait and see. The support range is 330000 - 350000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 450000 - 460000 yuan/ton [15]. - Lead: It is recommended to wait and see. The support range is 16400 - 16500 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 17000 - 17300 yuan/ton [16]. - Nickel: It is recommended to go long on dips. The support range is 125000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 138000 - 140000 yuan/ton [16]. - Stainless Steel: It is advisable to short in the short - term and go long in the long - term. The support range is 12800 - 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 13800 - 14000 yuan/ton [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided, such as copper closing at 101560 yuan/ton with a - 0.27% change [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The net long - short positions, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various non - ferrous metal futures are presented, like the net long - short position difference of沪锡(SN2603) being - 1850 [19]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, for example, the Yangtze River non - ferrous copper spot price is 101990 yuan/ton with a 0.21% change [21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, etc., such as the exchange copper inventory change chart [23]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to arbitrage of each non - ferrous metal are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, etc., such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change chart [58]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to options of each non - ferrous metal are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, etc., such as the copper option historical volatility chart [75].